Monday Night Football Predictions Week 6: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
Through five weeks of Monday Night Football, we’ve been treated to some awesome games. You had the Week 1 contest between Baltimore/Vegas, the Week 3 matchup between Philadelphia/Dallas, the Week 4 meeting between Vegas and the LA Chargers and then last week’s game between Baltimore and Indianapolis. The common theme among these four games is that there was a boatload of points scored and fireworks from the opening kick-off. Last week was no exception, as Baltimore erased a big deficit to win in overtime. With this week’s matchup between Buffalo and Tennessee, I fully expect to see another great game with plenty of fireworks.
As of writing this, the Bills are currently 5.5-point favorites, with the total set at 54. This line opened at Bills -3.5 and has since been bet up two full points. Part of the reason that has happened is that the Bills looked tremendous in their win on Sunday night at Arrowhead against the Chiefs. They dominated both sides of the ball and looked every bit the part of Super Bowl contender. The Titans did dominate the Jaguars in their Week 5 win, but the defense still looked suspect at times. I fully respect the line movement and think it’s justified.
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Storylines to follow
Revenge Game. Part II: The Bills needed to win last week’s game more so than the Chiefs. Not just win for the win column, but to erase any doubt that they could in fact beat the Chiefs when they needed to. They somewhat avenged their AFC title game loss on a smaller scale, and now they get another chance to avenge a loss from last year in which the Bills saw their perfect 4-0 started ended by this very Titans team in lopsided fashion. The Bills lost that game 42-16, and it was never really close. Now, the Bills return to the scene of the crime with a 4-1 record, and they rank inside the top-10 in all major offensive categories. After a season-opening loss to the Steelers, the Bills have reeled off four straight wins and are averaging 34.4 points per contest. The defense, which I pegged to be the best in the league, is currently first in total yards allowed, second in passing yards allowed, third in rushing yards allowed, first in points allowed and fifth in third-down conversion percentage. They are absolutely buzzing. And with the Titans’ offense looking vulnerable at times to turnovers and not being able to protect the QB, this could be a great spot for the Bills to avenge a loss for a second consecutive week.
King Henry: There were a lot of people who wrote off Derrick Henry early in his career as he struggled through the first two years in the NFL. He didn’t reach the 800-yard mark in either of his first two seasons before turning it on in 2018 and notching his first 1000-yard campaign. Over the last two years, Henry has rushed for 3,567 yards and 33 touchdowns – not including the 640 yards and seven touchdowns he has this season to lead the league in rushing. I am not trying to take anything away from Henry’s talent, but the Titans’ offense is one that force-feeds him the ball as many times as they can per game. Ryan Tannehill and the receiving corps are a work in progress and will very rarely beat you by themselves. It will be interesting to see if the Titans’ third-ranked rushing attack can get the better of the Bills’ top-three rushing defense. If the Titans can’t get the ground game going against the Bills, the Titans could be in for a long night.
Angles and Trends:
If you like the Titans and are going to take the points, you are banking on the following:
- Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
- Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after giving up 250+ passing yards in the previous game.
- Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 head-to-head meetings
If you like the Bills and want to lay the points, these trends are for you:
- Bills are 10-1 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in their last game.
- Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
- Bills are 13-3 ATS in their 16 games overall.
- Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite.
- Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs the AFC.
If you are thinking about betting the total, these are the important trends to know:
- Over is 7-1-1 in Bills’ last 9 games on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in the Bills’ last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Titans’ last 5 Monday games.
- Over is 7-1 in the Titans’ last 8 games as an underdog
- Over is 6-0-1 in Titans’ last 7 October games.
Prediction (Season Record: 2-2)
For what it’s worth, this could be one of those games where Buffalo comes to town a little too fat and happy about the previous week’s results and proceeds to lay an egg. It could happen. However, with the version of the Bills we’ve seen over the last four weeks, I say the chances are very slim. The Bills are a dominant team on both sides of the ball, and I expect them to come out hungry and ready to avenge the loss from last season. The Titans have had an up and down start to the season. And sitting at 3-2 on the season, they are well above the rest of the division as they have the 1-4 Texans and Colts and the 0-5 Jags. The division will be the Titans to lose. And even with a loss here to the Bills, they will still be in the driver’s seat. Give me the Bills here as they can torch the Titan’s weak defense and stymie the run with their stout run defense.
Pick: Buffalo -5.5
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