Monday Night Football Predictions Week 8: New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
If you were hoping for a good game last week when the Saints took on the Seahawks, you were in for a rude awakening. The game was brutal for everyone involved, excluding those who had bet on the correct number of punts in the game, which seemed to me like it was at least 25. This game might be better, but I’m just not sure we can get our hopes up as both the Giants and Chiefs have major issues coming into this contest.
As of writing this, the Chiefs are currently 10-point favorites with the total set at 52.5. This line opened at Chiefs -13 but has quickly dropped down three points to where it sits today. It’s hard to get a read on this game without a deep dive into what the numbers say. However, on the surface, this game looks like it should be a game where the Chiefs’ offense and defense perform well for 60 minutes against a mediocre Giants team. However, “should” is not a guarantee. And if we trust what we’ve seen with our eyes over the last few weeks, the Chiefs are very, very beatable right now.
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Storylines to follow
Little Giants: For those of you who get this storyline reference, you must have been born in the 1990s or have kids that grew up during that time frame. For those of you who don’t, Little Giants is a great football movie about a team made up of kids who weren’t “good enough” to make the select team. These kinds banded together to form a team of their own and took down the best team in the league. The New York Giants fit the description perfectly as they are a team that is filled with borderline talent that continues to work hard and make people second guess their opinions. The Giants are 2-5 on the season, but the mood around the team is that they are making strides. If they can come to Arrowhead and knock off the Chiefs, that’ll be a very big step in the right direction for a team that is still not going to make the playoffs. Look, the Giants have been ridiculed for their draft choices over the last handful of years as they’ve selected Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones with two extremely high picks. The two have somewhat worked together, but the Giants could have gone elsewhere with those picks and likely had a better fate. It’ll be interesting to see how long management keeps the band together before making some drastic moves.
Honeymoon Phase: Since Patrick Mahomes entered the league and took over the starting quarterback role for the Kansas City Chiefs, he’s been the talk of the town and the media darling. Sure, what he’s been able to do over the last couple of seasons is nothing short of incredible. The team results and individual accolades speak for themselves. However, as we entered into this season, you could sense a bit of an eerie feeling creeping around the team. The defense, which was much maligned all of last year, did nothing to get better in the offseason. The Chiefs’ offensive line remains in shambles. And while Mahomes, Hill and Kelce are still the focal points of the offense, teams have found more and more ways to slow down the once-vaunted Chiefs’ offense. Mahomes is off to his worst start ever since being named the starter. He’s forcing too many plays, which is causing turnovers, and the offense just does not look in synch as a unit. Then there is the defense. Wow is it bad. The Chiefs’ defense ranks 26th and 27th in all major offensive categories and 30th in third-down conversion percentage. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that if you can’t get stops on third down, you’re probably giving up a ton of points and won’t win many ball games. This game against the Giants is a chance for the Chiefs to figure out their issues and get them corrected. Mahomes figures to be under center despite leaving last week with a head injury. And in prime time with a raucous crowd urging them on, everything seems to point to a Chiefs’ win and cover. To that I say, not so fast.
Angles and Trends:
If you like the Giants and are going to take the points, you are banking on the following:
- Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a losing home record
- Giants are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 8
- Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs a team with a losing record
- Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games
- Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 head-to-head meetings
- Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games
- Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
If you like the Chiefs and want to lay the points, these trends are for you:
- Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss
- Chiefs are 15-5-1 in their last 21 games on Monday night.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 8
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 head-to-head meetings
If you are thinking about betting the total, these are the important trends to know:
- Under is 4-0 in Chiefs’ last 4 Monday Games
- Under is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last 6 games following a SU loss
- Over is 7-3 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games following an ATS loss
- Under is 7-1 in Giants’ last 8 games vs a team with a losing record
- Under is 6-1 in Giants’ last 7 games following an ATS win
- Under is 9-3-1 in Giants last 13 games as an underdog
It’s always a tough ask to ask a team to cover a double-digit spread. It doesn’t matter if they are on their home field, in prime time, or are the 2007 New England Patriots. Laying double digits is a bad way to beat the NFL long-term and turn a profit. With that said, I’m taking the points with the Giants on Monday night for a few reasons. The Giants, while they are 2-5, have shown they can be a pesky and tough team to play against. They have a defense that is much better than the Chiefs, and that could be the difference in this contest. The offense should be able to build off of what they did last week against Carolina and put some points on the board against the Chiefs. And with Mahomes likely not 100 percent in this contest, and the panic starting to creep into the team, and the copious number of trends (see above) that are in favor of the Giants, I’ll take a shot with the Little Giants.
Pick: New York Giants +10.
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