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NFL Office Pool Picks Week 5

by Spencer Toth - 10/3/2023

NFL office pool picks Week 5 Jordan Love Green Bay Packers

By this stage of the season, your office pool standings should have begun to take shape. It’s not easy to consistently beat the spread, and tailing this column will give you all the information you need to succeed. Last week, the favorites went 9-6-1 Against the Spread (ATS), getting the job done ATS for the second straight week. Here’s a look at all 14 matchups this week, with the predicted score lines and picks ATS attached.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Washington Commanders (-6.5) Over Chicago Bears 

The Commanders are nearly a touchdown favorite, despite losing 2 straight games heading into this matchup. That should tell you all you need to know about the Bears. Washington has shown signs of life against the top dogs this season, and should have no problem swatting aside the Bears, in what will be a rocking FedEx Field. Commanders 28, Bears 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) Over Buffalo Bills

The Jaguars stay across the pond after handily beating the Falcons in Week 4 and will look to continue their impressive London form. Josh Allen and the Bills have been able to string together 3 straight impressive blowouts, but a hungry Jaguars team will be able to keep this one close. Allen is due for a letdown, and a high stakes international game is where his turnover tendencies will flare up. Jaguars 25, Bills 24

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) Over Baltimore Ravens

While I expect the Ravens to stay atop the AFC North, this spread is too wide. The Steelers always play tough football, and a home game against their division rival is exactly when their defense will step up. Lamar Jackson will struggle to find passing lanes and will rely on the big leg of Justin Tucker to secure the victory. Ravens win, but don’t cover. Ravens 20, Steelers 17

Carolina Panthers (+9) Over Detroit Lions

The Lions offense has been able to guide them to a division lead, but their weak pass defense will be exposed by Bryce Young and the Panthers. When the Lions are up 10-14 points in the final quarter, their soft coverage will wind down the clock but will allow the Panthers to get the back door cover. Young has shown signs of improvement. And in what should be a passing heavy game, he will keep this one close. Lions 27, Panthers 23

Houston Texans (-1) Over Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons got off to a 2-0 start, but demoralizing losses against the Jaguars and Lions have them as home underdogs against the Texans. I can’t argue with this line, as while the Texans have scored 67 points across the last two games, the Falcons have scored 13. The Atlanta defense isn’t quite strong enough to keep their offense in the game, as the Texans get off to a shocking 3-2 start. Texans 24, Falcons 13

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) Over New England Patriots

Whenever there are question marks at signal caller, teams often struggle. Both of these franchises are unsure about their starter for different reasons, and I expect a complete Saints offense to get the win as slight underdogs. Alvin Kamara made his return last week and will have a field day as the Patriots continue their worst start in the Bill Belichick era. Saints 20, Patriots 12

Miami Dolphins (-11) Over New York Giants

This one could get ugly. A Dolphins offense that dropped 10 touchdowns on Denver a few weeks ago may need just 1 to secure victory against the lowly Giants. Despite the wide spread, the Dolphins will get a cover in a get right win over New York. An angry Tua Tagovailoa is a dangerous man to step in front of, and the Giants will drop to 1-4. Dolphins 38, Giants 17

Tennessee Titans (+1) Over Indianapolis Colts

The Titans and Colts are both off to solid starts, and this one could go either way. Anthony Richardson is quickly becoming one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league, but the Titans have a knack for winning games like these. I’m not sure how, but the Titans will find a way to edge out a win, just as they have so many times before. Titans 23, Colts 21

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) Over Arizona Cardinals 

The Bengals have been woeful, failing to get going on either side of the ball. While it can be attributed to tough opposition, if they falter against the Cardinals there will be no excuses. Joe Burrow hasn’t been good, but he will do enough to keep the Bengals faint playoff hopes alive. The Cardinals have been outscored 44-7 in the 4th quarter. Therefore, if the Bengals can get the lead, they should be able to get the cover that goes with it. Bengals 24, Cardinals 17

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) Over LA Rams

Just a reminder, Jalen Hurts has lost 1 regular season game in his career. This Eagles offense is borderline unstoppable and will have a field day against the 18th ranked rush defense in the league. They win games in the trenches, and the young core in LA will not know how to stop them. This one will get ugly as the Eagles steamroll the Rams on the ground, with 200+ rushing yards. Eagles 38, Rams 21

Kansas City Chiefs (-5) Over Minnesota Vikings

While both these teams got a victory in Week 4, neither were very impressive. The Vikings limped over the line against the lowly Panthers, and the Chiefs made it way too close for comfort against the Jets. In Week 5, the Chiefs will be able to get their offense going against the Vikings, and Justin Jefferson won’t do enough to get them over the line. The backdoor cover worries me, but the Chiefs hold on for the win. Chiefs 41, Vikings 30

New York Jets (+2) Over Denver Broncos

It’s a little confusing as to why the Broncos are favorites in back-to-back weeks, as they have not earned that privilege. Russell Wilson has improved, but a once formidable defense in Denver has gone down the drain. Zach Wilson showed signs of life against the Chiefs, and the Jets defense is still among the best in the league, regardless of what’s happening on offense. It’s not a massive upset, but the Jets get the victory as slight underdogs. Jets 21, Broncos 13

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) Over Dallas Cowboys

I don’t like to use the word ‘fraud,’ but the Dallas defense still has plenty to prove before they get crowned the best in the league. They’ve been able to slow down weak offenses, and the 49ers will be by far their toughest test yet. Christian McCaffrey will be as effective as always, while the 49ers make it look like another day at the office. 49ers 28, Cowboys 17

Las Vegas Raiders (+2) Over Green Bay Packers

The Raiders home field advantage will be limited when the Packers faithful roll into town, but their unit as a whole will not relent. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be back in the lineup, and I haven’t seen enough from Jordan Love and the Packers to warrant them being road favorites. This one will go down to the wire, and the free points in our back pocket may be the difference maker. Packers 28, Raiders 27

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