NFL Power Rankings Week 10
Bet every game ‘under’.
That is really the only trend you need to follow, as the ‘under’ continues to dominate NFL betting this season. The ‘under’ went 11-3 again last week and is now hitting at a dominating 61.5 percent this season (83-52 against the closing number).
There aren’t any other discernable trends for bettors to hang their hats on this year. Home teams are hitting 51.6 percent. Underdogs are at 47.7 percent. Home dogs? Underwater at 27-28 ATS.
But the ‘under’ keeps cranking. And this week, six of the 14 games on the board have a total posted in the 30’s.
There’s no need to fight it. Incompetence rules in the NFL these days. Might as well make it pay out for you.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) – The Eagles have a bye week followed by a trip to Kansas City on Monday Night Football and then two straight home games against Buffalo and San Francisco in back-to-back weeks. Better rest up. (And better figure out a way to get DeVonta Smith more involved in the offense.)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) – In his career, Patrick Mahomes is now 17-3 straight up following a loss, and the Chiefs are 16-4 ATS as a favorite of three points or less with Mahomes under center.
3. Baltimore Ravens (7-2) – No one in the AFC is going to beat the Ravens in Baltimore this postseason. This team appears to have completely regained its home field advantage. The Ravens defense has allowed an average of just 14.7 points per game in the 19 games it has played since trading for Roquan Smith last November.
4. Miami Dolphins (6-3) – It’s not just that the Dolphins lost their third game in three chances to a team above .500; it’s how they lost. In all three of those defeats (Bills, Eagles, Chiefs) Miami got down at least two touchdowns in the first half. They have been outscored 69-24 in the opening half of those three games and they have also combined to go just 10-for-33 on third down. Preparation and execution have been severely lacking.
5. San Francisco 49ers (5-3) – Could the 49ers really lose four games in a row? The Niners looked dominating while averaging 33 points per game in their first five games this season. They have mustered just 17 per game during their three-game losing streak. Deebo Samuel is set to return and Chase Young’s addition should bolster the defense. San Francisco is just 2-9 ATS after a bye, though, and they have the dreaded 10 a.m. PST kickoff with an early start in Jacksonville.
6. Detroit Lions (6-2) – The Lions are 9-2 ATS after a bye week. They had extra rest while the Chargers are playing on a short week following their MNF win in New York. I think the Lions are going to be one of the most popular picks on the board this week and it will be interesting to see if the books catch enough action on them to force a move to 3.0. Two weeks ago, this number was actually Detroit +1.5 but it has swung four full points despite L.A.’s back-to-back blowouts.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) – Cincinnati’s opening drive of the game – a 76-yard touchdown drive that took five minutes and saw the Bengals need just one third down – showed exactly why Joe Burrow will always be a threat to win a Super Bowl with this team. Cincinnati’s second-to-last drive of the first half – when they went -19 yards and were forced to punt after facing 2nd-and-1 from the Buffalo 23, thanks to four straight penalties – is why they won’t win a Super Bowl.
8. Dallas Cowboys (5-3) – I’m not going to pile on the Cowboys here. They are losers. Everyone KNOWS they are losers! That said, my takeaway from their loss in Philadelphia on Sunday was, really, that they probably should’ve won that game and may be the better team. They outplayed Philadelphia in the fourth quarter of that game and I think they are going to handle them in Dallas. The Cowboys have won 11 straight home games and really can pick their score this week against the Giants.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) – I have held firm all offseason and preseason that the Jaguars were not legitimate contenders in the AFC. They’ve proven that they are better than I gave them credit for. But if they want to prove me wrong, and show that they are a legit championship threat, then they need to beat the 49ers. The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a bye week.
10. Buffalo Bills (5-4) – I feel like Josh Allen invoked bad karma with his needless taunting penalty during his first touchdown. Buffalo’s offense really never looked right after that. The Bills now have a 47 percent chance of making the playoffs. Their back seven is a train wreck and this defense has only generated three takeaways in its last five games.
11. Cleveland Browns (5-3) – Teams off a home shutout win have gone 8-19 ATS in their following game. Cleveland has revenge for a 28-3 beatdown they took from the Ravens at home on Oct. 1. The Browns have managed a split in this series each of the past two seasons. And discounting their last meeting, four of the previous five games between these rivals have been decided by six points or less.
12. Seattle Seahawks (5-3) – It looked like men against boys last week when Seattle played Baltimore. I mean, it wasn’t just Geno Smith that was completely overwhelmed; Seattle looked helpless. Seattle has rebounded from its two previous losses this year with ATS wins but they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) – The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. Per the Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN Stats & Info, the Steelers are the 34th team in NFL history to be outgained in their first eight games, and they're the only one out of that group to have a winning record in that stretch. Of those 33 other teams, only one ended the season with a winning record: the 2022 Steelers.
14. New Orleans Saints (5-4) – Someone used the perfect word to describe this team: “unserious”. This is one of the best rosters in the NFC. But the incompetence of their coaching staff is surreal. Dennis Allen’s decision to go for it on fourth down late in the Chicago game rather than attempt a 37-yard field goal that would’ve made it a two-score game was the height of stupidity. Allen is basically the white Hue Jackson and will continue to squander the talent in New Orleans until his eventual humiliating exit.
15. Minnesota Vikings (5-4) – There isn’t much I can say about Josh Dobbs’ performance last week that hasn’t already been said. I had written about Dobbs earlier this season, talking about how if you had watched Arizona games you would see that he really was carrying the offense. Well, last week Dobbs rushed for more yards for the Vikings (66) than his former team managed in totals yards for the entire game (58).
16. Houston Texans (4-4) – C.J. Stroud became the sixth player in NFL history to record at least 450 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in a game, and his 470 passing yards are the most for a rookie in a single game. He had three different receivers go off for over 100 yards and Houston has erupted for 30 or more points in three of their last six games (while still going just 2-4 against the total).
17. Los Angeles Chargers (4-4) – That was another outstanding catch by Keenan Allen in the fourth quarter of Monday’s game. However, that is also now the third game in a row that Justin Herbert has made a horrible throw when Allen was wide open. I don’t know what is going on with the chemistry between Herbert and his top receiver, but it just isn’t there. Dating back to 2019, the Chargers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games against teams from the NFC.
18. Atlanta Falcons (4-5) – In 43 games under Arthur Smith the Falcons have now won by more than four points just six times. They are 0-11 ATS in nondivisional games and I can’t say enough bad things about this team. With baseline head coaching competence they would be, at the very least, 6-3 right now with a game against the Cardinals on deck. I won’t be sorry to see Smith go when he gets fired after this season.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) – That was criminal clock mismanagement by Todd Bowles in the final minute of that game. Why did he use his final timeout rather than take a 10-second runoff with 49 seconds left in the game? Tampa Bay had the ball at the Houston 15-yard line. Surely 39 seconds is more than enough time to run enough plays to try to score the game winning touchdown. The middle of the field and running plays would still be in the playbook because of where they were on the field. Instead, the Bucs scored on the next play from scrimmage and saved all that time for Houston to go down the field and beat them.
20. New York Jets (4-4) – This is how good of a coach Robert Saleh is: he is 9-8 when Zach Wilson starts for the Jets. That is truly impressive. The Jets are at a situational disadvantage this week, playing in primetime (Sunday Night Football) on the road one week after appearing on Monday Night Football. Even if the Jets survive their trip to Vegas, look for a letdown the following week in Buffalo when they finally get out of primetime.
21. Washington Commanders (4-5) – I know it was only the Patriots, but credit to Washington. This team could’ve packed it in after trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young last week at the deadline, a clear signal to the locker room that the front office was bailing on this season. Instead, Washington came to play and controlled the ball for 37 minutes in a three-point win. That said, I don’t know if they will have that same enthusiasm level this week in a trip to Seattle.
22. Indianapolis Colts (4-5) – The Colts have revenge for a 26-3 shellacking that they took in Foxboro last year. Indianapolis is just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against the Patriots dating back to 2010.
23. Tennessee Titans (3-5) – Will Levis has been named the starter for this team and I think it is clear that is the way to go. Tennessee isn’t going anywhere this season so they might as well see what they’ve got with the kid. The Titans are on a 1-3 ATS slide and are just 3-7 SU in their 10 games overall.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) – At this point it needs to be a blind bet: bet on any NFL team that fires its coach midseason in its next game. Over time, an interim coach is going to sink or swim. But teams always play hard the week after their coach gets the in-season axe.
25. Los Angeles Rams (3-5) – I guess Sean McVay figures that if he could win games with Baker Mayfield last year he might as well give Carson Wentz a shot. The Rams signed Wentz on Tuesday and he now has two weeks to get up to speed on the Rams offense. Over the last 50 halves of football the Rams have played the past two seasons they have been held below 100 yards in a half 12 times, the second-most in football.
25. Denver Broncos (3-5) – Can the Broncos build off their upset win over the Chiefs and can this team be competitive on the road? Those are the two big questions facing Denver this week. The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a bye and Sean Payton has always been good with extra time to prepare. Denver has not played well on the road this season (0-3 ATS) though, even if you discount their 70-20 bloodbath at Miami.
27. Green Bay Packers (3-6) – Green Bay should take absolutely zero solace in that win over the Rams. That was one of the ugliest, sloppiest, most poorly played games of the entire season, with both teams doing absolutely everything in their power to try to lose that game.
28. New England Patriots (2-7) – Can you even imagine how bleak a trip to Germany with Bill Belichick would be?
29. Chicago Bears (2-7) – Every possession in the fourth quarter of the Bears-Saints game took place in Chicago territory. The Bears turned the ball over five times – four times in their own side of the field – yet they still covered the spread and only lost by seven points. Keep an eye on D.J. Moore this week as he goes up against his old team and its injury-decimated secondary. If Luke Getsy has a clue he will get Moore at least 10 targets and let him feast on his old teammates.
30. New York Giants (2-7) – This offense, now without its top two quarterbacks (neither of which was very good) has a chance to be historically bad. The Giants are averaging 11.2 points per game (101 total points). The lowest-scoring teams in NFL history (post-Great Depression) were the 1992 Seahawks (141 points) and 1991 Colts (143). The lowest scoring team this century was the 2000 expansion Browns (161), followed by the 2006 Raiders (168).
31. Carolina Panthers (1-7) – It was a savvy move by head coach Frank Reich to bestow offensive coordinator Thomas Brown as the playcaller two weeks ago. Since Brown took over the Panthers have scored two offensive touchdowns in two games. Reich knows how pathetic the talent is on this offense. So now he’s setting up a scapegoat if things fail to progress through the rest of this season and into next year.
32. Arizona Cardinals (1-8) – I don’t think that Kyler Murray is going to make one bit of difference for the Cardinals. He is going to be rusty. He probably still doesn’t know the offense. The guy hasn’t played in 11 months and wasn’t all that good before he blew out his knee. Arizona’s offensive line is shredded and their skill position talent is nil. That said, NFL teams off a shutout loss are 32-18 ATS in their following game and 7-0 ATS if they were shutout by a nonconference opponent.
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