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Monday Night Football Picks: Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

by Mike Allen - 10/10/2025

Monday Night Football picks Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Caleb Williams

If the first matchup between the Nos. 1 and 2 overall draft picks from 2024 wasn’t enough fun for you last year, the NFL made sure to renew this rivalry right away in 2025 with a mid-October Monday Night Football matchup in our nation’s capital.

Don’t tell me you’ve already forgotten what happened between these two teams last year. It’s late October, and the Bears and Commanders have had an ugly game. With just single digits remaining on the game clock, the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels launched a successful hail mary over 50 yards.

This was a bit of a turning point for both teams in 2024. The Bears went on to struggle for most of the season, while Washington eventually made the playoffs and, of course, blew out the heavily favored Detroit Lions on the road.

This season has been better for Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. He has a strong head coach and play caller/QB whisperer to guide him in the form of former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.

After losing their first two games of the year, Chicago has rattled off a couple of wins in a row, albeit over the Cowboys and Raiders, where they needed a blocked field goal to get past the latter.

That's not a good look, as Las Vegas has been one of the worst teams in the league this season. Chicago is coming off a bye week, while Washington had to make the trip, albeit a victorious one, home from Southern California after Sunday's big win over the Chargers.

Yes, LA was banged up on their offensive line, but what Washington was able to do to a playoff team and potential Super Bowl contender, the Chargers, was one of the most impressive wins of the season, for anyone.

The Los Angeles D is still pretty stout, and Daniels had his most efficient performance of the season in his first game back from injury, playing on the road across the country against a stellar defense.

Too many people are shrugging off the 27-10 victory. Injuries on the offensive side of the ball are important, but look at last Thursday's game between the Niners and Rams. The betting odds went from under a field goal to over a touchdown simply due to a few key injuries, and in the end, they didn't even matter. San Francisco looked great.

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Chicago Bears (+4.5) at Washington Commanders (-4.5)

This betting line opened up at (-4.5) for Washington, and after 71% of the tickets and 82% of the money have come in on the Commanders, we’re still at just (-4.5). I’ve heard opinions on this game that are all over the place. Some people say that the Bears have had this game circled on their schedule, and if you add that together with the bye week, the Commanders could be on upset alert this Monday night.

Point Total: 49.5

If you like the over, I would bet it sooner rather than later, as some sportsbooks have moved to 50 and are pushing 50.5. We may even see this one hit the key number in point totals of 51. Washington is weak in their secondary this year, and with an extra week of prep as well as the revenge factor at play, we might see a shootout.

With the Commanders’ ability to run the ball, we could see Washington control the clock, so I’m not sure if I’m ready to pull the trigger on the over.

Moneyline Odds

Bears: +180

Commanders: -223

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

The Chicago defense ranks last in the league against the run, allowing more than 6 yards/rush to opposing running backs. It doesn't get much better for them at stopping quarterbacks from scrambling, either, as they're allowing more than 8 yards per carry.

There are a lot of interesting and challenging betting matchups in Week 6. If it weren't for this revenge factor coming off a bye, I would be all over Washington here.

They’re playing great football, though, and I trust them to put up the points. Take them to go over their team total of 27.5 points.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders Betting Pick

Pick: Commanders Over Their Team Total of 27.5

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