Monday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

by Mike Allen - 10/3/2025

We wrap up Week 5 on Monday Night in Jacksonville, Florida, when new head coach Liam Coen leads his surprising Jags against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. It's been a decent year so far for Jacksonville. They would be 4-0 had they not found a way to let the Jake Browning-led Bengals beat them.

Last week was solid, though. They walked off the field 3-1, handing the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the 2025 season. It didn't come without controversy, however, as Coen made a beeline for Niners defensive coordinator Robert Salah to let him know that he should keep Coen's name out of his flipping mouth.

The former Jets head coach responded with class, followed by a direct dig/accusation. He said Coen and the Jags use a quote, "Really advanced signal-stealing-type system where they always find a way to put themselves in an advantageous situation."

He also complimented the first-year head coach on his successes. It'll be fascinating this week as Coen will be up against an even higher-profile defensive coordinator, Steve "Spags" Spagnola, one of the greatest to ever do it.

His vaunted Kansas City defense will soon be getting more consistent help on the other side of the ball with the Chiefs coming off their best offensive performance of the season against their rival, the Baltimore Ravens.

With Xavier Worthy back lined up wide at receiver, the top has been taken off of opposing defenses. Maybe a team like the Chargers, who have someone like Derwin James heading up their secondary, can keep a lid on KC, but at full strength, the Chiefs may be my betting favorite to win the Super Bowl.

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Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

The betting line opened at (-2.5) for Kansas City, and as you might imagine, after last week's win, the money has come in on the dynasty, albeit most of it was at 2.5 or 3. There hasn't been much bet on KC since the line moved above a field goal.

Point Total: 46.5

We opened up at 44.5 and again, with the Chiefs' offensive resurgence, we see the total bet up nearly to the key number of 47.

Moneyline Odds

Chiefs: -190

Jaguars: +160

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis

The Jags have made their money this season in the trenches, particularly on defense, where they rank inside the top ten in both yards/rush and yards/pass allowed. They have done nearly a flawless job protecting their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.

The team has run the ball very effectively this year, averaging 5.0 yards/carry, mostly with Travis Etienne Jr., who is having a career year so far, averaging better than 6 yards/carry himself.

That's where it ends, though, on offense for the Jags. They're a bottom-5 passing team in the NFL, which isn't going to cut it against better-than-average opponents like the Chiefs, who will likely have second-half leads on them.

On paper, the Jags are front-runners, and until Lawrence proves otherwise, that's who they are.

In recent years, the Chiefs' run defense has been king, with Chris Jones plugging up the middle. He's still there, but stopping the run has been a struggle for KC this year.

I see this one playing out like most Chiefs games the past few years. Mahomes will work some late magic to get them the 3-point victory.

Let's buy a point with KC and take them at (-2.5) with affordable betting odds of (-144).

We're only losing about 22% of the total payout when going from (-110) to (-144). That's a small price to pay to be on the right side of what will probably be a field goal game between two solid defenses.

From there, ask yourself whether you want Mahomes or Lawrence leading you down the field to a potential win.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Pick

Pick: Chiefs (-2.5) with Betting Odds of (-144)

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Monday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

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