2025 Atlanta Falcons Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Season Win Totals

by Spencer Toth - 7/29/2025

Atlanta Falcons predictions Bijan Robinson

The Atlanta Falcons have now finished under .500 for seven consecutive seasons and have yet to wash the bitter taste of the 2016 Super Bowl out of their mouths. The fact that they are financially strapped by Kirk Cousins’ massive contract as a backup quarterback has prevented the Falcons from making all the offseason moves they wanted to, but the front office has done a good job of working within their restrictions. A historically weak NFC means the Falcons still have a reasonable shot at the postseason with a mangled roster, but will Michael Penix Jr. be good enough to get the job done in his first season under center?

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Offseason Recap

The Atlanta Falcons were never going to be able to make the moves they wanted to with Kirk Cousins' 4-year, $180 million contract on their books, but they were crafty with their tight budget. The biggest offseason addition was Leonard Floyd on the defensive side of the ball, who is capable of making an instant impact. This will be Floyd’s fourth team in the last four years, but he has found success wherever he’s been. He’s logged at least 8.5 sacks in five consecutive seasons, including 10.5 in his lone season with the Bills. Atlanta also got some assistance further back, as safety Jordan Fuller will instantly slot into the secondary. It was clear the Falcons chose to prioritize the defensive side of the ball this offseason, as they also have a pair of first-round rookies in Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr joining the team. Walker was a shocking slide down the 15th overall that the Falcons happily scooped up. He’s the first Georgia Bulldog to go to Atlanta in the first round since 1966, and can play both linebacker and edge for the Falcons as soon as Week 1.

The Falcons were not without their departures as they lost a few key members on the defensive side of the ball. Matthew Judon is still a free agent with one month to go until the season, but it appears unlikely he will rejoin the Falcons. The 4-time Pro Bowler was one of the few bright spots for the Falcons' defense last year, but Atlanta is equipped to fill his hole with new talent.

Season Expectations

The Atlanta Falcons fanbase will have expectations that this team can compete for a playoff spot. They have been equipped with the skill-position players to make a postseason run, but haven’t quite been able to get things to click on offense. Kirk Cousins was obviously a mistake, and drafting Michael Penix Jr. last season could go from one of the most puzzling decisions in NFL history to a great choice by their general manager.

Penix Jr. will look better in the pocket with a full offseason behind him, and he has no shortage of weapons to choose from. Bijan Robinson is a stud in the backfield, and the trio of Darnell Mooney, Drake London, and Ray-Ray McCloud is capable of getting open downfield. One missing piece has been tight end Kyle Pitts. Pitts has struggled to live up to his lofty expectations and has left both fantasy managers and Falcon fans disappointed. His 4 touchdowns last season were a career best, but he is still not the integral part of the offense he could be.

The Falcons fanbase will be quietly optimistic that they can make some noise this season in the very weak NFC South. New Orleans and Carolina have even more problems than Atlanta, and the Buccaneers are from from the Super Bowl winning side they were half a decade ago. The Falcons are expected to lose more often than they win, but there is still semi-legitimate hope they can surprise the league if Penix Jr. plays well this season.

Schedule Breakdown

The Falcons are in the woeful NFC South, which gives them a handful of winnable games right off the bat. New Orleans could go 0-17 this season, and the Panthers continue to struggle. That should be 4-0 or 3-1 for the Falcons, and they would just need to finish in the 6-7 range in the rest of their games. Tampa Bay is always a tough team to beat, and the Falcons have a relatively difficult schedule outside their division. They have a trio of games against the Colts, Patriots, and Jets, but the rest of their schedule features matchups against teams expected to do better than Atlanta this season. There are no easy games against their 4 NFC West opponents, and once you sprinkle in Washington, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Miami into the mix, Atlanta is suddenly facing an uphill battle. The Bucs will be a good measuring stick in Week 1, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Atlanta in the 2-5 range halfway through the year, given their tough schedule in the opening games of the season.

Atlanta Falcons Odds

The Falcons have finished with 7 or 8 wins in 6 of the last 7 seasons, and the oddmakers are expecting another mediocre season in Atlanta. They have -140 odds to finish with over 7.5 wins this season, and -150 odds to finish with under 8.5 wins. The 8-win mark appears to be the most likely, and it is hard to argue with that assessment. The Falcons haven’t gotten any better or worse this offseason and are only benefiting from a weak division this year. The Saints should be two easy wins, but if the Panthers and Buccaneers can split the games with Atlanta, they will face an uphill battle. They have +155 odds to make the playoffs and +240 odds to win the NFC South. While I am not too confident in either of those wagers, the +240 odds for a division title are the far better choice. It is very unlikely the Falcons will be good enough for a Wild Card spot but not good enough to win the division, and the better price for a season-long future makes it the way to go. The +3000 NFC odds and the +7000 Super Bowl don’t interest me too much, as waiting a few weeks shouldn’t hurt the return too much, and we can get a better idea of how Penix Jr. will look.

2025 Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Falcons' massive contract sitting in the backup quarterback position means they just need to get through this season and reset. Cousins is not getting any younger, and the focus will be on developing the young talent this year. The easy division has driven the Falcons' win total much higher than it should be for a team with this talent, but their schedule is far tougher than it may initially seem. The Falcons may be able to win the division with a measly 8-9 record, but the best pick you can make is on their unders. The +110 price tag on Under 7.5 wins is the more lucrative option, while the -150 on Under 8.5 is the safer pick. For a season-long future, I will always take the plus money price, and a 7-10 record is beyond plausible for this team. However, if you are a Falcons believer, take advantage of their weak division with a juicy +240 price tag to win the NFC South over any win total or playoff qualification bet.

Top Pick: Atlanta Falcons Under 7.5 Wins +110

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2025 Atlanta Falcons Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Season Win Totals

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