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2017 Miami Dolphins Season Win Total Picks


by - 8/10/2017

matt moore miami dolphins

2016 Record: 10-6

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 7.5

2017 Season Win Total Pick: 'Under'

I am not entirely sure what is going on in Miami. But I know none of it is good.

The Dolphins were a surprise playoff team last year, winning 10 games and sneaking into the Wild Card round. But their preseason has been a disaster so far, losing quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a knee injury and then grabbing Jay Cutler out of the broadcast booth. They've had to deal with other injuries (Ted Larsen) and off-field scandal (Jarvis Landry), and things appear to be resetting to the norm for this lackluster franchise.

Miami has only won 10 or more games three times in the last 14 years. Following the past two seasons in double-digits the Fins faltered to just four wins (2004) and seven wins (2009) in the following seasons. Given the typical turnover for NFL playoff teams - roughly half of the teams that make the postseason one year miss the playoffs the following year - I think that Miami is a team that is screaming for another regression.

There are several other indicators pointing downward for the Dolphins. This team won 10 games despite the fact that they were outscored and outgained by their opponents last season. Miami had the stats of a seven-win team. But they made the postseason on the strength of their record in close games, going 6-1 in games decided by six points or less and 5-1 in games decided by four points or less.

Oh yeah, and then there is Cutler. Jay Cutler is one of the biggest losers the NFL has seen over the past quarter century. The aloof, turnover-prone anti-leader has posted a pathetic 61-82 record against the spread in his career. That is a 42.6 percent success rate for this mess of a quarterback. And now Cutler - who actually retired this offseason - is being touted as the savior in South Beach.

I honestly and truly believe this team would be better off with long-time backup Matt Moore. Moore may not have Cutler's arm strength. But he has moxie, guile, the trust of the locker room, and about 10 times the heart that Cutler will ever have.

Miami has other issues on the offensive line and in their back seven. And depth is pretty much non-existent past their starting 22. The Dolphins will also have to face a playoff-caliber schedule that is simply brutal. Miami crosses over against the AFC West and the NFC South, two of the deepest divisions in the league. They also close with four of their last six coming against two AFC East rivals (New England and Buffalo) and the other two against playoff contenders Denver and Kansas City.

I, for one, am thrilled that Cutler is back in the NFL. He is awful and he's taking the wheel on a team that is already barreling over a cliff. He's just the man to make sure that the fall causes maximum damage.

Dolphins Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)

Week

Date

Kickoff

Opponent

1

10-Sep

1:00 p.m. EDT

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2

17-Sep

4:05 p.m. EDT

at Los Angeles Chargers

3

24-Sep

1:00 p.m. EDT

at New York Jets

4

1-Oct

9:30 a.m. EDT

New Orleans Saints

5

8-Oct

1:00 p.m. EDT

Tennessee Titans

6

15-Oct

1:00 p.m. EDT

at Atlanta Falcons

7

22-Oct

1:00 p.m. EDT

New York Jets

8

26-Oct

8:25 p.m. EDT

at Baltimore Ravens

9

5-Nov

8:30 p.m. EST

Oakland Raiders

10

13-Nov

8:30 p.m. EST

at Carolina Panthers

11

19-Nov


Bye

12

26-Nov

1:00 p.m. EST

at New England Patriots

13

3-Dec

1:00 p.m. EST

Denver Broncos

14

11-Dec

8:30 p.m. EST

New England Patriots

15

17-Dec

1:00 p.m. EST

at Buffalo Bills

16

24-Dec

1:00 p.m. EST

at Kansas City Chiefs

17

31-Dec

1:00 p.m. EST

Buffalo Bills

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