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Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers Expert Monday Night Football Picks


by - 10/2/2019

Odell Beckham Cleveland Browns

Ugh, getting tired of all the split decisions on Monday Night Football this season. For some odd reason, I believed the Bengals would show up this past Monday in Pittsburgh and at least lose close, but boy was I wrong. So, we missed on Cincinnati +4 but easily stayed "under" the total of 43.5 in the Steelers' 27-3 victory.

It's a lot better matchup this week between division leaders as Cleveland visits San Francisco. Yes, the Browns are just 2-2, but they are tied atop the AFC North with Baltimore and already hold a head-to-head tiebreaker (one more meeting). Bovada oddly has the Ravens as -115 division favorites even though they just got schooled for the most part by Cleveland (+125).

Just three unbeatens left, and the 49ers are the only one in the NFC - they have a half-game lead over the Rams and Seahawks, although one of those teams will drop to 3-2 on Thursday night in Week 5. Bovada still favors the Rams to win the West at -140, with the Niners at +250 and Seahawks +350.

One interesting story line here is that it was common knowledge that the Browns used to covet Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in trade. In fact, the Browns were ready to offer Houston's 2018 first-round pick to New England, but Bill Belichick was a bit steamed that he was being forced by Robert Kraft to trade Jimmy G so Belichick only called the 49ers before the 2017 trade deadline - and only got a second-round pick.

Browns at 49ers Betting Story Lines

This is Cleveland's first-ever game at Levi's Stadium, which opened in July 2014. It's also the first time San Francisco is ever hosting the Browns on MNF. They did play one in 1993 in Ohio.

Cleveland was an underdog Sunday in Baltimore and looked like the Super Bowl contender many thought the Browns would be in a 40-25 victory. Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards and a touchdown but did have another interception - that's six on the year. Nick Chubb was the clear offensive focal point in rushing 20 times for 165 yards and three scores, including an 88-yarder. Chubb also had a 92-yard run last year and has become just the third player with at least two TD runs of 85 yards or more in his first two seasons. I never heard of the first guy (Bob Hoernschemeyer), but Chris Johnson did it with three from 2008-09.

Will Mayfield have Jarvis Landry on Monday? The extra day of rest will help considering Landry left Sunday's win with his first NFL documented concussion. Landry caught eight passes for a career-high 167 yards before leaving. Cleveland will add some WR depth, though, as Antonio Callaway has been reinstated from his four-game suspension. Callaway brings big-play potential with his speed. Tight end David Njoku remains out injured.

The 49ers are as well-rested as possible coming off their Week 4 bye - no question that few in the organization wanted a bye this early. This is the first time San Francisco has won its opening three games since 1998.

Garoppolo has been so-so in the early going, but the Niners' defense is allowing just 283.3 yards (third in NFL) and 18.0 points (eighth). The additions of pass-rushers Dee Ford and Nick Bosa (No. 2 overall pick has 17 QB pressures) have made a world of difference. Last year, the Niners had an NFL-low seven takeaways. They already have that many.

However, that unit has lost very good cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon for at least a month with a right foot sprain. Garoppolo could see the return of two weapons from injury on Monday in running back Tevin Coleman and rookie receiver Jalen Hurd. The latter hasn't played yet, while Coleman was hurt Week 1.

Browns at 49ers Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes, San Francisco is a 3.5-point favorite (-110) with a total of 46.5. On the moneyline, the Niners are -200 and Browns +170. On the alternate lines, the 49ers are -3 (-135) and -4 (-102). Cleveland is 2-0 against the spread on the road and 1-1 "over/under." San Francisco is 0-1 ATS at home and 0-1 O/U.

More: Josh Picks the Cleveland vs. San Francisco Monday Night Football ATS Winner

 

The Browns are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 in October. They have failed to cover their past six following a victory of at least 14 points. The Niners are 26-7 ATS in their past 33 MNF games. They are 0-6 ATS in their previous six following a bye. The under is 4-1 in Cleveland's previous six after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. It's 5-2 in the Niners' past seven at home. The under has hit in four straight meetings.

Browns at 49ers Betting Prediction

The Browns' roster is more talented, but the Niners are healthier for the most part and rested. And, hey, they are already 2-0 vs. the AFC North. Jimmy G is 4-0 with 1,106 pass yards and six touchdowns in four career home starts with San Francisco. I'll be taking the 49ers but waiting to give 2.5 points. Go under the total.

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