NFL Power Rankings Week 4
Beware the hype.
The Cleveland Browns are the glaring example of why you should not ignore hype in the NFL. Instead, you should make money by actively betting against it.
The week after the season opener is the Overreaction Week. But now we are getting into Hype Week. Despite an extremely limited sample size and some outlier results, it appears that the bobblehead media is ready to make (more) wild, unsubstantiated claims on everything from Buffalo's viability in the AFC East race to Daniel Jones' Hall of Fame prospects.
Don't tune it out. Take it in. And bet the other way.
Here is Doc's Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. New England Patriots (3-0) - What do you think the Patriots offense is going to do to Josh Allen on Sunday? New England has shutout its opponents in five straight games dating back to last season. The Patriots have won five straight over the Bills by an average of 17.6 points per game. They have won three straight in Orchard Park by an average of 18.3, and they are an incredible 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) - Patrick Mahomes is not human. He is must-see TV every Sunday. The Chiefs are on a 5-2 ATS run overall, and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Kansas City is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September and 18-8 ATS after a win.
3. Los Angeles Rams (3-0) - The Rams made Sunday night's win over the Browns look much, much more difficult than it should have been. Sean McVay was coaching that game with one hand wrapped firmly around his throat. Los Angeles either runs the ball or they throw it deep. There is seemingly no in between. I think McVay needs to embrace the thug life and go with a more rugged approach with this very physical team. Don't try to get too cute, man.
4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) - Don't pretend that going for all those fourth downs and two-point conversions was some calculated mathematical gambit, John Harbaugh. If you thought you had an edge against their defense, say that. But the reality is that the moves had an air of desperation to them.
5. Dallas Cowboys (3-0) - I will give the Cowboys credit. They let the Dolphins hang around for a bit. But past Dallas teams - like the ones with Tony Romo under center - would've done something stupid to fall behind in the second half of a game like that as a massive favorite. This current iteration stayed patient and just wore Miami down. Their efficiency on their first drive right out of halftime was impressive.
6. New Orleans Saints (2-1) - The Saints were outgained by a whopping 250 yards at Seattle last week and they posted a comical 8.0 offensive yards per point. Teddy Bridgewater did not look good at all. And even though the Saints have revenge against the Cowboys for last year's Thanksgiving weekend loss they are going to be a bit overmatched this week.
7. Minnesota Vikings (2-1) - Run the ball and play great defense. Football doesn't have to be too complicated. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Bears, and they are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Chicago. They are also just 1-4 ATS on the road, and they may again be without Anthony Barr.
8. Green Bay Packers (3-0) - The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles, and they are catching Philadelphia at a great time. The Eagles are trying to cobble together a functioning roster and are dealing with several injuries.
9. Indianapolis Colts (2-1) - This team is just absolutely rock solid on both sides of the ball. They are going to be a really tough team to beat, and I honestly don't see a weakness when I look at this squad. That said, if they are without T.Y. Hilton for any appreciable amount of time, that is a massive blow to this offense. Hilton is easily one of the five or six best receivers in football.
10. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) - Chris Carson is clearly the all-around most talented running back in Seattle's stable. But he's already lost three fumbles. And they did invest a first-round pick in Rashaad Penny. Penny was inactive last week because of his hamstring. But when he's fully healthy, I think it is time to see just what the Seahawks have with the young back.
11. Houston Texans (2-1) - Last week was the first game this season in which the Texans outgained their opponent. This offense, despite its talent, still feels very stunted. In a bit of a quirk, Houston is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 4. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing records.
12. Chicago Bears (1-1) - Win on Monday, lose on Sunday. The three other teams that have won on Monday Night Football this year - New Orleans, Oakland and Cleveland - have gone 0-3 SU and ATS the following week. I thought it was telling that the Bears were not installed as a standard three-point favorite at home this week against the Vikings. Instead, they are laying 2.5.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) - I've been trying to tell people: I do not like the Chargers this year. I'm not completely writing them off for this season. They still have some dudes, and they are going to pick up a free win this week against Miami. But they are 0-3 ATS in their first three games, and I think that they are going to be a money burner all season long.
14. San Francisco 49ers (3-0) - I actually think that the early season bye week hurts the Niners. They have a lot of positive momentum right now, and I bet they wish they could keep playing and ride it as long as they can.
15. Buffalo Bills (3-0) - Let's slow down on the Bills. They have beaten three of the six worst teams in football, and they could have lost two of those games. Orchard Park is going to be insane this week when the Patriots come to down. I put the number of alcohol-related fatalities on Sunday around five.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) - Carson Wentz is just 4-14 in his career when trailing in the fourth quarter. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on Thursday night football and the road team in the Packers series is 4-1 ATS.
17. Tennessee Titans (1-2) - It is tough to hold a 10-minute advantage in time of possession and get blown out by two touchdowns. The Titans are just 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games against a team with a losing record, and they are 5-15 ATS on the road against teams that are below .500.
18. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) - The Falcons have outgained all three of their opponents this season. But - and I can't believe I'm typing this - Matt Ryan's turnover issues are just killing this team. I think that this week's game is a must-win for Dan Quinn. If Atlanta doesn't make the playoffs, then I don't see how Quinn keeps his job. And if they don't win this week, their odds of making the postseason are nearly shot. Atlanta is on a 3-8 overall ATS slide.
19. Detroit Lions (2-0-1) - This team has kind of a sneaky-good secondary. They benefitted from a bevy of Eagles mistakes last week, but in general I like how these guys look in the back. They are certainly going to be tested by Mahomes on Sunday. Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games, but they are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) - The Steelers are a soft favorite this week despite their first 0-3 start since 2000. It will be interesting to see how many people pile on the Steelers on Monday Night Football simply out of muscle memory. They are taking 70 percent of the early week action and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on MNF. The Steelers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games against the Bengals.
21. Cleveland Browns (1-2) - I said it last week, and now people are just starting to catch on: Baker Mayfield just might not be any good. We know that Freddie Kitchens is a mess and this team has no chemistry, no cohesion and no organization. After two straight weeks in prime time, it will be interesting to see if they come out flat going on the road and playing an early kickoff.
22. Carolina Panthers (1-2) - The Panthers are still just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after a win. Fewer than one-third of the wagers in this week's game in Houston have come in on Carolina. The result has been a line that has lurched from 4.0 to 5.0, and I think it will continue to move that way all week.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) - The Jaguars are just 5-for-24 on third downs with Gardner Minshew under center. I love the kid's moxie. And a 75 percent completion rate is elite. But this is still an overmatched offense, and he's a young quarterback. I expect some bumps, and a trip to Denver to face a desperate Broncos defense could be trouble.
24. Oakland Raiders (1-2) - The Raiders were blasted 42-28 at home by the Colts last year. However, Oakland actually had the lead (28-21) going into the fourth quarter of that game before the Andrew Luck-led Colts outscored them 21-0 to close the game. The Raiders are 11-22 ATS in their last 33 games, and they are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games.
25. Denver Broncos (0-3) - That the Broncos do not have a sack through three games is one of the more astounding early season stats of this season. I knew there would be some slight issues in the transition to Vic Fangio's scheme. (And long term I still think this defense will be fine.) But it is still bizarre to see how badly they are struggling on this side of the ball.
26. Washington Redskins (0-2) - What an absolute clown car of an organization. Daniel Snyder is a horror show of a human being, and he deserves all of the credit for what a joke the Redskins have become. And I am staking my position out early: I don't think that Dwayne Haskins is going to be any good. There is very little about him that I've seen that makes me think he will be the answer at quarterback. And I don't think that Snyder wants to expose that just yet, because then all hope is lost.
27. New York Giants (1-2) - Apparently Daniel Jones is The Second Coming. And apparently we are going to ignore the fact that A) the Bucs are losers and the Giants were down 18 points in that game and B) Jones had at least two throws that should've been intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Hope can be a dangerous thing. Especially when it discounts the obvious limitations on the rest of this roster.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) - Bruce Arians' decision to take an intentional delay of game penalty to make the potential game-winning field goal even further because he thought it would make the kick "easier" is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard. And I don't care about Jameis Winston's passing yardage numbers. At some point you just know that he is going to make a backbreaking mistake that is going to cost his team (and backers) the game.
29. Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1) - Kyler Murray isn't the first young quarterback to get flustered by Ron Rivera's version of the Cover-2 defense. He won't be the last. I have been saying for weeks that people don't realize how bad Arizona's defense is. It was on full display on Sunday, though. Any offense that has the patience to stay committed to running the ball can push around this team.
30. Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) - Twice the Bengals had 12 men on the field, and both events were crippling. The first one led to the Bills successfully converting a two-point conversion. That extra point meant the Bengals were down four (needing a touchdown) instead of three on their final drive. The second time they had too many men on the field they had to burn a timeout, which also cost them on that final drive. That is not a good look for rookie coach Zac Taylor. Nor was his freak-out after the game-ending interception.
31. New York Jets (0-3) - Adam Gase is a tool. And it is not surprising in the least that Gregg Williams seems to be undermining him in the Jets locker room. Williams pulled the same thing with his last idiot coach, Hue Jackson.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-3) - I don't want to hear about how hard the Dolphins play. They are getting paid to play hard. And trust me: that effort level won't be there in November. These guys are 0-3 ATS despite an average spread of +16. They will start to cover some of these spreads at some point. But I don't know that they will be there.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past nine years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$4,400). He has also posted 7 of 9 winning seasons (including three straight winning years) and produced an amazing 50 of 76 winning football months over the past 12 years. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons. Robert is looking for a fourth straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
We are offering new clients $60 in free college football picks for Robert's picks or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choosing. Get your free college football picks now!
Read more articles by Robert Ferringo