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Monday Night Football Predictions Week 13: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

by Chris Vasile - 12/3/2021

Monday Night Football predictions Week 13 Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

Depending on what side of the fence you fall on, last week’s Monday night game between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Football team could be described in two completely different ways. For the casual or avid football fan, that 17-15 final was a dismal display of football. The Football Team dominated the Seahawks in the box score but could muster only 17 points. If you are like me and were holding a Washington moneyline or -1.5-point ticket, that game was the best game you’ve ever seen based on the result, and it isn’t up for discussion.

I’ve now connected on back-to-back Monday nights, so I’m excited to make it three straight. This week we have a very important AFC East clash between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The teams are neck-and-neck for the AFC East Crown, and the winner of this game could very well be on their way to winning the division. As a famous wideout once said, “get your popcorn ready.”

As of writing this, Buffalo is currently 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 43.5, This line opened as Bills -3 but has quickly been bet down a half-point, and with good reason. Quite frankly, I’m shocked this game isn’t a pick’em, but I do understand that process of giving Buffalo at least three points for home field. It’ll be interesting to see which defensive unit can come through and lead their team to a big win in a crucial division matchup.

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Storylines to follow

Tom 2.0?: It’s always fun to write headlines or subheadings that can trigger fanbases and get the masses talking about how insane the writer is. This is one of those instances. I am fully aware that we likely won’t see anyone with a career that replicates Brady in a very, very long time. However, the media loves comparing players, so it’s only natural (read: unfair) that Jones, despite not even playing in a full season yet, is being compared to the greatest quarterback of all time. There is no doubt about the maturity that Jones has shown as the weeks go on. He’s got a solid completion percentage, and he’s only 200 passing yards behind Josh Allen and had two fewer interceptions. He’s holding his own and he’s led the offense to scores of 25, 25, 45, 27 and 54 points during the six-game win streak. However, all good young quarterbacks are only as good as their defense allows them to be, and Jones has one of the best units in the league backing him up. The Patriots defense has been on a mission, giving up just 26 points over their last four games. And when you hold teams to under 13 points, the offense is very likely going to score at least 14 to win the game. It’ll be interesting to see how Jones fares on the road in a hostile environment like Buffalo. If you look at the Patriots road games, they’ve played at NYJ, at Houston, at LA Chargers (basically a home game), at Carolina and at Atlanta. Those crowds are nothing like he’s going to see in Western New York on Monday night in prime time. Good luck, Mac.

Circle The Wagons: The Bills looked damn near unbeatable early in the season before suffering a lull in November as they went just 2-2 with two extremely ugly losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts. They rebounded well on Thursday with a dominant win against the Saints and will need a similar performance if they are to topple one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Thankfully, the Bills are fully healthy. And with extra rest/prep time, the Bills should be ready and fired up to defend their home turf. The key to winning this game for the Bills will be to find a way to move the ball through the air on the third-ranked passing defense. If they can matriculate in the passing game, the Patriots likely won’t have enough firepower of their own to turn this into a track meet.

Angles and Trends:

If you like Patriots and are going to take the points, you are banking on the following:

  • Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall
  • Patriots are 5-0 ATS following an ATS win
  • Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
  • Patriots are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog
  • Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo
  • Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs AFC foes

If you like the Bills and want to lay the points, these trends are for you:  

  • Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs the Patriots
  • Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs the AFC East
  • Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games
  • Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a winning record
  • Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December

If you are thinking about betting the total, these are the important trends to know:

  • Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings
  • Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 road games
  • Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 December games
  • Over is 4-1 in Bills’ last 5 games following an ATS win
  • Over is 16-6-1 in Bills last 23 games following an SU win

Prediction

We’ve now won back-to-back Monday night football games, and I’m eager to make it three straight. For this one, we roll with the home favorite once again. Because, why not? The Bills know that letting this game slip away could be the difference between winning the division and losing it. The Bills need to show why their defense is ranked among the best units in the league. And with Mac Jones experiencing his first extremely hostile road game, we see the Bills and Bills Mafia having the last laugh in this one.

Pick: Buffalo -2.5

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