NFL Office Pool Picks Week 7 with Expert Analysis and ATS Predictions
It was another good week for yours truly as we went 10-3 against the spread with only the Chargers, Steelers and Bills letting us down. It was also a good week for the betting public as most teams who won and covered were favorites, thus giving sportsbooks their first losing weekend in quite some time. So, what does this mean for us moving forward? Well, for starters, don’t be tempted to think that the underdogs are going to “bounce back” this week. Things do not always even out right away, so just be aware that betting underdogs blindly because they are due is a terrible idea.
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Week 7 Picks Against the Spread
Cleveland Browns -3.5 over Denver Broncos: Whether Baker Mayfield takes the field or not, I still think the Browns are too deep a team to lose this game to the Broncos. The line will go down a bit should Baker be ruled out, but I’m comfortable laying this line for the sake of this piece.
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 over Miami Dolphins: This is a straight fade of the Dolphins. They are coming back from a long trip to London where they lost to the Jags. Now they take on a rested Falcons with an extra week of prep. Falcons win this game by double digits.
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 over Tennessee Titans: The Titans got lucky on Monday night. They needed every bit of Henry’s 143 rushing yards and three touchdown performance to escape with a win because the opposing QB slipped on a QB sneak. The Titans are not a very good football team. And while this should be high scoring, I expect the Chiefs to win this by at least a touchdown.
Carolina Panthers -3 over New York Giants: The Giants cannot play any worse than they did last week against the Rams. They were booed off their own field and now must play in front of those same fans again. I don’t think that’ll go over well. The Panthers are the deeper team and the team that’s better coached. I see them winning this contest.
Green Bay Packers -9.5 over Washington Football Team: This is a lot of points to be laying in the NFL, but I do not want any part of the Washington Football Team, nor do I want to get in front of Aaron Rodgers and that awesome Packers’ offense. I think this is going to be a blowout, and the Pack win by at least 14.
Cincinnati Bengals +6 over Baltimore Ravens: I’m biting on the Bengals here for two reasons. One, I think the Ravens are not as good as they’ve played over the last few weeks. They caught the Chargers in a tough spot last week and took full advantage of it. Number two: this is a division showdown that could/will likely play a part in who wins the division. I’ll take as many points as I can get. And lastly, I like Burrow to make one more play through the air than Jackson, and the backdoor will be wide open.
New York Jets +7 over New England Patriots: The Patriots gave it their all last week against the Cowboys and came up just a bit short. Now they must get up for the lowly Jets and lay seven points? The last time the Patriots laid this number of points was two weeks back against the Texans, and they nearly lost outright. I’ll take the Jets to keep this one close.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 over Las Vegas Raiders: I was on the Raiders last week as I knew they were the better team. The firing of Gruden didn’t scare me as he was what was holding them back. That, and the defense. The defense is still there, and I expect Philly to have an easier time moving the ball up and down the field than they did against Tampa. I’m calling for an upset here.
Los Angeles Rams -15 over Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals -17 over Houston Texans, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 over Chicago Bears:
I’m going to go ahead and group the three of these picks together. This is an awful lot of points to be laying in the NFL in a single game, let alone three games that all feature double-digit spreads. So why am I laying the points? Well because I can’t recall a season in which two teams (the Texans and Lions) are as bad as they are. We all know the Lions are in rebuilding mode, but the Texans are just a few years away from almost beating the Chiefs in the playoffs. Since then, they’ve traded/lost all their good players and are now a CFL team at best. The Rams and Cardinals are among the best teams in the NFC and should lay the lumber in their respective games. As for Tampa, it’s always a bad idea to go against Tom Brady, and I don’t see him losing to a rookie quarterback. The spread will be close, but I think the Tampa defense is the difference in this one.
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 over San Francisco 49ers: Speaking of defense, I trust the Colts’ defense more in this contest than I do the 49ers. It’s hard to imagine backing the Niners as they are uncertain of who will start at QB. And even if Jimmy G does get the nod, I’ll back Wentz and Taylor to move the ball up and down the field and cover this spread.
New Orleans Saints -5 over Seattle Seahawks: And lastly, the Saints are going to dominate this game. They come into this one rested off a bye week. And while Geno Smith did show some positives against the Steelers, the Saints are the deeper and more explosive offense and should put up a boatload of points here.
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