NFL Handicapping Articles
2018 New Orleans Saints Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/31/2018
Want proof that one draft class can alter the shape of your franchise - even if you didn't land a franchise quarterback in said class? I give you the 2017 New Orleans Saints. Coach Sean Payton was considered on the hot seat entering last year with his team coming off three straight 7-9 seasons. Most expected more of the same, but the Saints' 2017 draft class was absolutely amazing - led by NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara (No. 67 overall pick from Tennessee) and Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore (No. 11 overall from Ohio State).
2018 Pittsburgh Steelers Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/30/2018
Ben Roethlisberger is the greatest quarterback in Steelers history - yes, Terry Bradshaw has won two more Super Bowl rings, but the overall statistics aren't close - and is a first-ballot Hall of Famer someday. But, man, is Big Ben starting to sound like a whiner, and I know more than a few Steelers fans who are tired of his act. For the past couple of years, Roethlisberger has hinted at retiring.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/25/2018
It took a long while, but MyBookie has finally posted odds for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. We discussed the offensive ROY battle right after the Draft, but this race is much deeper and much more interesting. We are looking at the Top 7 guys on the odds board here, but there are six or eight more that you could easily make a case for - and one long shot who stands out who we'll look at, too. This is going to be a very fun race to watch.
2018 Minnesota Vikings Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/24/2018
Minnesota was 6-2 on the road last season (best in division), 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 "over/under." The Vikings travel to three playoff teams from 2017: LA Rams, Philadelphia and New England. The road schedule looks way harder than at home with it also including perennial playoff team Seattle. I project the Vikings to go 4-4 on the road. Odds listed for the home team.
2018 New England Patriots Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/23/2018
Is this the year the New England Patriots' dynasty ends? I think there is a legitimate chance the answer is "yes" and that the team's trade of Jimmy Garoppolo, made basically because Tom Brady was whining about it, is going to really start to hurt this franchise.
2018 Philadelphia Eagles Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/16/2018
It's that time of year again! The NBA playoffs are down to the conference finals, the NFL Draft is in the rear-view mirror, and the week-by-week NFL game odds have been released. That means we start previewing all 32 teams' road schedules with a projected record and then come back around and do all 32 home schedules with a final overall record and "over/under" pick.
NFL Week 1 Lines and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/7/2018
The draft is over and free agency is largely done with for the year in the NFL, so it feels like we are ready to play some football. The sad truth, though, is that the regular season is still a third of a year away. Ugh. While it will be a long wait for the season to get rolling again, we don't have to wait to handicap the first week of games. Bovada is one among several sportsbooks that have posted opening lines for most games in the first week of action. A lot will obviously change between now and then, but let's go shopping for some value, shall we? This isn't all of the games - some don't have numbers yet, and some just aren't that interesting:
Can the Philadelphia Eagles Repeat as Super Bowl Champions?
by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2018
The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are the second choice to win the Super Bowl at +800 at Bovada, and they are the first choice in the NFC - only New England at +500, the team that Philadelphia beat to win the Super Bowl, has lower odds. Now that the draft is done, and the heavy lifting of free agency is over with, the obvious questions looms - can the Philadelphia Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions? It's a simple question without an easy answer. Let's look at it from a few different angles:
NFL Betting Impact of Rookie Quarterbacks
by Trevor Whenham - 5/2/2018
As expected, the first round of the NFL Draft this year was very quarterback-heavy. Four pivots went in the Top 10, and there were five picked in the first round. What made this year both unique and interesting was that there was far from a consensus as to which quarterback was the best. Lamar Jackson was universally fifth - though most people seemed to think he has real upside. But if you asked 10 different people to put the top four in order you would have gotten 10 different answers.
NFL Rookie of the Year Odds: Race for Best Offensive Newcomer
by Trevor Whenham - 5/2/2018
The NFL Draft is in the books, teams mostly look like they are going to look, and we as handicappers can now turn our attention towards the season and what may happen. And one of the more interesting things to consider right now is which of those draft picks are going to pay immediate dividends for their teams. The last two years Dak Prescott and Alvin Kamara have won the award, and few would have seen them coming when the seasons started.
NFL Betting: Should I Buy Points?
by Chris Vasile - 5/1/2018
It doesn't matter if you are a novice bettor just learning the ropes or a professional bettor that's seen everything in their 25 years in the business, at one time or another (more like several times in your lifetime) you will have to throw away a ticket in which a team failed to cover the point spread by a half point. It is one of the more frustrating losses in the industry, right next to the classic ninth-inning bullpen collapse in baseball. Some would say losing a bet by the hook is the bettors fault, not the actual players or coaches in the game, and in some cases they would be right. Buying points while sports betting is both a blessing and a curse -- depending on if you know when to do so or not.
2018 First Round NFL Draft Grades by Team
by Robert Ferringo - 4/27/2018
You cannot deny evolution. Some creatures are just born to thrive while others are meant for elimination. And we were treated to this cold, unrelenting fact of nature again on Thursday in the first round of the NFL Draft. The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are three loser franchises. They are three of the most hopeless, inconsequential organizations in sports, perpetual failures that serve as minor stepping stones for the elite teams in the NFL. And they all proved why that is once again by failing to take advantage of the fantastic opportunities they were given to alter their histories.
2018 NFL Draft: Breaking Down the Quarterback Class
by Robert Ferringo - 4/26/2018
By my count, between 1998-2014 just 17 of the 47 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft turned into legitimate, competent signal callers with positive careers. (It's too early to call it on anyone taken in the last three years.) And my definition of "legitimate, competent signal caller" liberally includes noted losers Carson Palmer (No. 1 overall pick with 92-88 career record and one playoff win), Jay Cutler (No. 11 overall pick with 74-79 record and one playoff win), and Daunte Culpepper (No. 11 overall pick with 41-59 career record and two playoff wins).
Cleveland Browns Need to Draft Barkley With No. 1 Pick in NFL Draft
by Robert Ferringo - 4/24/2018
The Cleveland Browns have been the most fascinating team in football so far this offseason. They have made several high-profile trades and signings. And with two of the top four picks in the NFL Draft they are in a position to restructure and redirect what has been one of the most incompetent franchises in sports.
Dez Bryant to the New England Patriots? Bet on It!
by Raphael Esparza - 4/18/2018
The NFL Draft is less than 10 days away, but right now the NFL talk is still about where former Dallas Cowboys WR Dez Bryant will play next year. Oddsmakers are split on where Bryant will suit up this upcoming football season as Bovada released its odds, and they have Baltimore Ravens (3-1) as the favorite. However, MyBookie has the Houston Texans as the favorite at +280.
NFL Betting Advice: What to Make of Los Angeles Rams Offseason Moves
by Trevor Whenham - 3/22/2018
Trading has come to the NFL in a bigger way than ever before this offseason, and the L.A. Rams have been a driving force in the trend. Their surprisingly strong season last year didn't end like they wanted it to, and through trading and other moves they have taken aggressive steps to make sure they are better prepared for the postseason this time around. It's still early, and the draft will impact how almost every team in the league looks going into the season. We are in a bit of a calm before the storm, though, with the busiest part of free agency past and the draft still a little way off.
Expert NFL Handicapping: New York Jets Moves Make Team Much Improved
by Trevor Whenham - 3/22/2018
You can't accuse the New York Jets of being inactive this offseason. Last year wasn't as much of a disaster as it seemed like it could have been on the field, but it was still a long way from good. However, the team had a pile of cap space and has been wildly aggressive in overhauling this team. There is still a lot of time left before the season, and the draft is going to be a big day for this team - as they have clearly signaled.
What the NFL Trade Bonanza Means for the Future of the League
by Trevor Whenham - 3/14/2018
It has been a March unlike we have ever seen in the NFL. A league that hates to trade - at least outside of draft day - has suddenly developed an intense love for it. Big deals have been coming hot and heavy the last few weeks. It's not just bit pieces being exchanged, either - Alex Smith, Robert Quinn, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, Michael Bennett, Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Cordy Glenn and the rest are good players with a lot left to give. Teams are trading legitimate players and getting legitimate prices for them. It certainly hasn't been boring. And it leaves two questions for us as bettors - why is it happening, and what does it all mean? Let's address both in turn:
NFL Draft Betting Props for the First Overall Pick
by Trevor Whenham - 2/15/2018
As of right now the first pick in the NFL Draft - to be made by the Browns - is a total mystery. There is often some confusion at this point before the Combine and before teams have really started their intense digging, but this year things feel more uncertain than ever. We don't even know if the Browns will definitely pick a quarterback - as opposed to going for a free agent or a trade - never mind which one they will pick if they do take one.
QB Nick Foles to Leave Philadelphia Eagles Next Season? Bet on it!
by Trevor Whenham - 2/13/2018
I will fully admit that I didn't see the last month of Nick Foles' life coming. He was lousy early on when he took over from Carson Wentz, and he was far removed from his strong season with the Eagles under Chip Kelly, so I expected him to be the anchor that sunk this once-promising Philadelphia season. So, of course, he won Super Bowl MVP.
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