NFL Handicapping Articles
NFL Betting Odds: Week 17 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/28/2018
It's our last Line Movements & Last-Minute News story for the 2018 regular season, although obviously things are just getting started in a way NFL wise with the playoffs on tap. We'll have you more than covered through the first Sunday in February here at Doc's.
NFL Betting Odds: Week 16 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/21/2018
In many ways, Week 16 is the last "real" one of the 2018 regular season because there are only two games that don't feature a team mathematically alive for a playoff spot: Green Bay at NY Jets and Denver at Oakland (Monday). There will be a ton that don't mean squat in Week 17.
Expert NFL Handicapping: Can Los Angeles Rams Get Back on Track?
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018
Let's start with the most important thing to remember when talking about the L.A. Rams right now. The team is 11-3 and has remaining games against Arizona and San Francisco, so they are well positioned to have a first-round bye as the second seed in the playoffs. We are not on the edge of disaster or anything.
NFL Handicapping and Betting: What to Make of Patriots Stuggles
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018
When it comes to the New England Patriots, this is not what we are used to seeing. Sure, they are going to run away with their division yet again. And with games against the Bills and Jets remaining, they are very well positioned for double-digit wins as usual. But this is the team that was favored to win the Super Bowl heading into the season, and they are certainly not playing like a real contender right now.
NFL Betting Odds: Week 15 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/14/2018
Each week in this space, we try to address either the biggest news or top line moves for Sunday's games. It's rather nice when the two apply to the same game. That would be Sunday night's Eagles at Rams matchup. Los Angeles opened as low as -7.5 and now can be found as high as 12.5. The total has dropped around 54.5 to 52.5. Sometimes, it's not always crystal clear why a line moves so massively, but it's 100 percent known here: Carson Wentz.
NFL Playoff Teams: Handicapping Those Hard or Easy to Trust
by Trevor Whenham - 12/13/2018
As we wait for the action to start in Week 15 of the NFL season, there are still several teams in the playoff hunt. In the AFC there are four playoff locks and five teams realistically alive for the final two spots. In the NFC there are five playoff locks or near locks and four teams at the heart of one of the worst wild-card chases I ever remember. So, there are 18 teams at least sort of in the playoff conversation with three games left.
NFL Betting Odds: Week 14 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/7/2018
The biggest news in the sports world this week came from college football as one of the great coaches ever in that sport and a lock Hall of Famer, Ohio State's Urban Meyer, announced he would retire after the Buckeyes' Rose Bowl game on New Year's Day vs. Washington.
Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 14 NFL Betting Options
by Chris Vasile - 12/7/2018
Can someone please tell me if I missed the memo regarding the NFL refs and their incompetency this year? I mean, really. Is the NFL trying to make us mad and demand replacement refs? How hard is it to see a 6-foot-4, 250+ lbs lineman take two steps backward before the ball is even snapped?
Expert NFL Handicapping: Are Chicago Bears a Legit Contender?
by Trevor Whenham - 12/7/2018
The Chicago Bears are such an interesting case right now. After so many years of futility, and with muted expectations this year, they find themselves very much in control of the NFC North. They haven't wrapped anything up, and losing to the Giants was certainly not helpful to their cause, but they are nearly-prohibitive -800 favorites to win the division at Bovada, with the Vikings far back at +375. It's quite a turnaround - and certainly not how anyone expected the division to go at the start of the year.
NFL Betting Odds: Week 13 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/29/2018
Legendary former Dodgers executive Branch Rickey is credited with this quote: "Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late." What does this have to do with the NFL? I give you Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Bortles had a decent 2017 season and helped lead the Jaguars on a surprise run to the AFC title game - although in reality the team won more in spite of Bortles than because of him.
NFL Betting Odds: Week 12 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/23/2018
The NFL is enjoying a bit of a renaissance this season in terms of ratings because it has been the most offensive year of all-time. Some of that is thanks to burgeoning young star quarterbacks like the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and Rams' Jared Goff.
NFL Betting Odds: Thanksgiving Wagering Primer
by Trevor Whenham - 11/20/2018
We have reached the inevitable point in the NFL season - the one day every year in which I, as a Canadian, am jealous of my American neighbors. Don't get me wrong, I like you guys all the time. But on Thursday while we're up here working away like any other day, you guys are eating turkey and watching football. One of the very few things I love more than football is turkey. Now, I'd be more jealous if the games were better than they are this year - there isn't a game here that I was crying to see - but I'm still jealous. Here's a look at the three games and what they have to offer us:
Handicapping the NFL Division Races Heading into Week 12
by Trevor Whenham - 11/20/2018
We are at the point in the NFL season in which things really matter. The last of the byes happen this week, and every team except for the Chiefs and Rams has played 10 games. We are entering the last turn, and we can see the homestretch ahead of us. Theoretically, every divisional race is wide open, but some are more competitive than others. In fact, several of the divisions aren't that competitive at all even though there is still a month and a half of football left to play.
Expert NFL Handicapping: Playoff Contenders and Pretenders
by Trevor Whenham - 11/20/2018
We are only 11 weeks into the NFL season, so there isn't a team that has a playoff spot clinched yet - at least not mathematically. But there is a lot that we know by this point, and we are getting a clear sense of which teams will certainly be playoff teams, which ones could be, and which ones have no hope. And of those playoff contenders, we are getting a good sense of the true contenders and the pretenders. Here's a look at how the contenders break down (odds to win the conference are from Bovada):
Expert NFL Handicapping; How to Bet Teams Out of Playoff Hunt
by Trevor Whenham - 11/20/2018
For 30 of the 32 teams in the NFL, there are six weeks of games left. That's a whole lot of football still to be played. But for several teams none of those games matter - even a little bit. In fact, for many teams it has been six or more weeks since they last played a meaningful game. Any team that is struggling badly is going to have a harder time getting up for games than, well, a good team. But some bad teams are in better shape than others.
Scott Spreitzer Week 11 NFL Handicapping Notes
by Scott Spreitzer - 11/20/2018
We enter the new football week on a 47-24 CFB & NFL winning run. We swept our big plays, winning with the Colts in the NFL and Navy in college. We'll take a 14-1-1, 93% winning top play run into the new week and have a 7* Main Event in both college football and the NFL. Grab the entire week of college and NFL plays and NOTE: Plays will be posted for the entire week on Wednesday afternoon (Nov. 21).
NFL Betting Odds: Week 11 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/16/2018
OK, this is officially the last time I talk about Le'Veon Bell for the 2018 NFL season. But Bell not reporting to the Steelers by Tuesday's deadline was the biggest news of the week, meaning he will forfeit $14.5 million or so plus some benefits, etc., in hopes of cashing in even bigger next season as a free agent. It's quite the gamble by Bell and his agent as really no player on the franchise tag has done this before. Steeles players reportedly raided Bell's locker this week, taking his cleats, etc. Good riddance, basically.
Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 11 NFL Betting Options
by Chris Vasile - 11/16/2018
I'm sure by now we've all heard the news about how Bell didn't report to the Steelers and will now sit out the entire 2018 season and forfeit upwards of $14 million in game salary. I've done a lot of thinking about this over the last few days, and part of me wants to hate him and label him selfish and not a team player. But the other part of me understands where he is coming from and what he is fighting for.
Expert NFL Handicapping: Oakland Raiders and Jon Gruden Performance
by Trevor Whenham - 11/15/2018
The Oakland Raiders are five-point underdogs in Arizona this week. Ari-freaking-zona! The Cardinals have been favored once this season - by two points in their opener at home against the Redskins. And they have only two wins all year - both against San Francisco. Arizona is as bad as a team can reasonably be right now, barely into a rebuild that will be long and painful. Yet they are solid favorites here and have been the choice of a strong majority of bettors so far, moving the line from an opening number of three to the current five, with 5.5 even starting to show up.
NFL Betting Odds: Week 10 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/9/2018
Suppose we have to address the big news in the NFL this week, although not as big as outlets like ESPN are making it: Dez Bryant has signed with the New Orleans Saints. Of course, the Cowboys cut Bryant after last season when it looked like the now-31-year-old was trending down as he caught 69 balls for 838 yards and six scores. Decent numbers, but the yards per catch were a career low. In addition, Dez can be a bit of a headache as most diva receivers are.
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