NFL Handicapping Articles
NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
by Alan Matthews - 9/5/2017
Welcome to my first game prediction of the new season. I'll be here to look at every Thursday night game each week along with a marquee Sunday matchup and the Monday nighter (picking one of the two in Week 1). It should be quite an atmosphere at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro this Thursday as the Patriots unveil their fifth Super Bowl banner - certainly the most unlikely one in terms of how badly they were getting stomped in the big game before staging that epic comeback.
Expert NFL Handicapping: Five Reasons to Fade the Oakland Raiders in 2017
by Robert Ferringo - 9/5/2017
The NFL has always been a little more exciting when the Raiders have been prominently involved. Every good story needs a proper villain. And the Oakland Raiders have been professional football's reprobates through most of their existence. Yet during a prolonged period of pathetic football - they went 56-136 over a 12-year period from 2003-2014 - the Raiders had become a joke, an afterthought, and a relic of a bygone era.
NFL Key Betting Numbers: Business as Usual for Bookies after NFL Extra Point Rule Changes
by Jeremy Martin - 9/5/2017
When NFL owners approved the Competition Committee's proposal to move extra point attempts from the two-yard line back to the 15-yard line before the 2015 pro football season, suddenly traditional key betting numbers were in jeopardy. The long-established main key numbers of three and seven in NFL betting have long been the standard for bookies when setting and moving NFL lines. These key numbers are so important because they are the most common margins of victory in NFL games, with approximately 16 percent of pro football games landing on three for the past 20+ years and close to eight percent landing on seven.
NFL Betting Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 9/4/2017
Just over seven months since the New England Patriots staged the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history - probably the greatest single-game comeback in sports history considering the stage - the NFL is finally back. As am I every Monday with an NFL opening line report. If you follow these stories, you know the drill: I'll touch on any major news or injuries from the previous week and how they might affect the coming week's lines - or a team's futures odds.
2017 Arizona Cardinals Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/31/2017
There's simply no player quite like Cardinals running back David Johnson - not even Le'Veon Bell. I'm sure Johnson is going No.1 in all your fantasy leagues, and he expects to join the 1,000/1,000 club this season as in rushing and receiving yards. The only guys to do that in a single season are Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk (1,381 rushing and 1,048 receiving) in 1999 and Roger Craig (1,050 rushing and 1,016 receiving) in 1985.
Expert NFL Betting Advice: Best and Worst Week 1 Lines
by Trevor Whenham - 8/31/2017
As I write this, every team except Houston and Dallas, who have had their final preseason game cancelled due to Hurricane Harvey, still has one preseason game left. The last game of the preseason is so mind-numbingly pointless, though, that it only makes sense to look ahead to the first week of action. The public hasn't yet turned their full attention to the lines for the first week of games, so the numbers will move, significantly in some cases, between now and kickoff.
NFL Predictions: Best-Case Scenarios for all 32 Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 8/31/2017
Success means different things for different teams in the NFL. What would be spectacular to the point of being miraculous this year for the Browns would be so bad that it would cause the Patriots to consider folding. As we head into the new season, here is a look at the best-case scenario for each of the 32 teams in the league. It should go without saying that the fans of some teams will be happier with these than other.
2017 Oakland Raiders Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/30/2017
Back in March, the NFL owners voted 31-1 - only Miami's Stephen Ross voted against - to allow the Raiders to move to Las Vegas even though that's a much smaller market. However, that new stadium in Sin City won't be ready for the Raiders until 2020. (Talk about the best NFL road trip for any fan base playing the Raiders!)
2017 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/25/2017
We know there's a Super Bowl Loser Curse and a Madden Cover Curse, but I don't believe I've heard of a Hard Knocks Curse. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are featured on this season's always-entertaining HBO show "Hard Knocks". Most coaches around the NFL tell their owners that they don't want the cameras around. That's why the league instituted rules where teams can be forced. Recent history has shown mixed results for Hard Knocks teams.
2017 Tennessee Titans Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/24/2017
The NFL is a copy-cat league, but sometimes if you go against the grain that can be successful because few teams do it. For example, the 2016 Tennessee Titans. I absolutely thought they made a mistake after a 3-13 season in 2015 by not hiring some offensive guru like a Chip Kelly to work with Marcus Mariota. Instead, the Titans gave the full-time job to Mike Mularkey, who took over midway through the '15 campaign for the fired Ken Whisenhunt.
2017 Detroit Lions Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/23/2017
It's going to be a long sports season in Detroit. The Tigers are rebuilding and will only avoid last place in the AL Central Division because of the "more" rebuilding Chicago White Sox. The Detroit Red Wings' amazing 25-year playoff streak ended last season as they finished with 79 points, and things aren't likely to be much better in 2017-18. The Pistons are meh. They missed the playoffs last year and might sneak in as a No. 7 or 8 seed this season in the weak East only to get bounced quickly.
New England Patriots First Loss of 2017: Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Chris Vasile - 8/23/2017
If you can't feel the excitement as you read those three simple words, I am afraid you are in the wrong place. Before we prepare ourselves for another five-month rollercoaster of emotions, we must reflect on how dramatically the 2016-17 NFL season came to an end. The New England Patriots erased the largest deficit in Super Bowl history by coming back from a 28-3-hole midway through the third quarter to force overtime. From there, history was made and the Patriots captured their fifth Super Bowl title. I can still vividly hear Joe Buck's game-winning touchdown call; "Toss to White, *silence*, heeeeeeee's in! Patriots win the Super Bowl! Brady has his fifth. What a comeback!"
Free NFL Betting Picks: Week 1 Lines and Odds Expert Analysis
by Trevor Whenham - 8/21/2017
We are at an interesting time for NFL lines. We have seen a bit of preseason action, so we have a better sense of where teams are at than we did a while ago, but the opening week of the season is still far enough away that the public has yet to start paying close attention to the lines for those games. Lines have been posted for a long time now, and the sharp money has had their way with them, but they still look different now than they will once the public floodgates open. That means that it is a good time to look for lines that are interesting. Here are six lines from Bovada which, for one reason or another, stand out as being interesting:
Expert NFL Betting Advice: Best and Worst Backup Quarterbacks
by Trevor Whenham - 8/21/2017
A team's backup is like a heart surgeon. You hope you never have to get to know who they are, but when you need one it usually happens suddenly and you really hope they are good at their job. The NFL has their choice of every college football quarterback there is, so it is consistently amazing to me that there aren't enough good backups to go around. Heck, there aren't enough good starters to go around, either, but that's a different story.
Expert NFL Handicapping: Teams that Could Be Worse ATS in 2017
by Trevor Whenham - 8/20/2017
There are 32 teams in the NFL, and only 14 of them were profitable against the spread over the course of the whole season last year. Needless to say, it is tough for teams to consistently grow the bankrolls of bettors. We can't know with any certainty which teams will be profitable - though we are certainly working hard to figure it out. What I do know without any hesitation at all, though, is that all 14 teams that were profitable last year won't be profitable this year. Some will but far from all.
Expert NFL Betting Advice: Teams That Could Improve Against the Spread
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2017
There were a lot of teams in the NFL that were not much fun to bet on last year. Eighteen of the 32 teams in the league were not profitable if you bet on them in every game they played. Not surprisingly, many of those teams weren't very good at football. Not many bettors are going to bet on every game a team plays - not many good bettors, anyway. Still, it can be very useful for bettors to identify teams that are likely to improve significantly against the spread from where they were last year. That can be one of the easiest ways to identify opportunities for profit - especially if the teams are likely to be more improved than the public expects them to be.
2017 Baltimore Ravens Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/18/2017
While I'm not Peter King or Jay Glazer, I consider myself very well-informed when it comes to the NFL each season. Hey, I read Peter King and Jay Glazer (and many others)! But I'll just be honest here in saying I have absolutely no idea what to expect from the 2017 Baltimore Ravens largely because no team has been more gutted by injuries thus far (Miami is in the conversation too).
2017 New York Giants Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/17/2017
The New York Giants focused almost entirely on their defense last offseason, and it worked wonders on that unit, which largely carried Big Blue to an 11-5 record and its first playoff berth since upsetting New England in Super Bowl XLVI - the last real highlight of the Tom Coughlin Era.
2017 Miami Dolphins Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/16/2017
I was frankly skeptical that the Miami Dolphins were going to reach the playoffs again after going 10-6 last year and getting to the postseason for the first time since 2008 - which also happens to be the year Tom Brady blew out his knee in Week 1 and the last time the Patriots didn't win the AFC East. I'm certainly more skeptical in the wake of Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill's knee injury that has ended his season.
2017 Green Bay Packers Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017
Aaron Rodgers put on one of the all-time great quarterback displays for about three months last season and carried Green Bay to the cusp of the Super Bowl. As long as Rodgers is still under center, the Packers have to be considered one of the favorites to win the NFC and a legit Super Bowl threat. But will (or more importantly can) absolutely anyone on the Packers roster raise their level of play to match Rodgers? If not, it's been proven over the past two "underachieving" seasons that Rodgers can only carry this team so far.
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