NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
by Alan Matthews - 1/10/2018

So which fan base deserves a victory more in Saturday afternoon's NFC Divisional Round game at Lincoln Financial Field between the Falcons and Eagles? On the one hand you have the unfortunate football fans in the state of Georgia. They were subjected to the biggest Super Bowl choke job in history last February when their Falcons, trying for the first NFL title in franchise history, somehow blew a 28-3 late third-quarter lead to the New England Patriots. Then on Monday night, it looked like the University of Georgia would win its first national title since 1980 just 70 miles from campus in Atlanta.

Betting Odds and Predictions for Jon Gruden Monday Night Football Replacement
by Trevor Whenham - 1/10/2018

He finally did it. After years of being the hottest name not on a sideline, Jon Gruden has finally found a job he couldn't say no to. Of course, not many people would say no to the obscene contract the always-questionable Raiders threw at him. Now he has to prove that he is worth all the hype - and dramatically better than he was during his last six years in Tampa Bay. While there will be lots of time to figure out what to expect from him in his new role, let's look now at what will happen to his old seat.

NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: Bye Teams Last Five Years
by Trevor Whenham - 1/9/2018

Things aren't quite as we are used to following the Wild-Card Weekend in the NFL Playoffs. All four teams coming off a bye are well rested and have had extra time to prepare, but only three of those teams are favored in the Divisional Round. The home team is almost always favored in this round, but understandable skepticism surrounding Nick Foles with the Eagles has given the sixth-seeded Falcons the edge in their impending showdown.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
by Alan Matthews - 1/4/2018

There are a whopping eight new playoff teams in the NFL this season, and two newbies facing off in the AFC Wild-Card Round are the sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills visiting the No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars in Sunday's first game. Buffalo ended the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports leagues (that now belongs to MLB's Seattle Mariners) in amazing fashion in Week 17.

Expert NFL Betting Advice and Tips: Ranking Playoff Upset Possibilities
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2018

We have a relatively clear weekend of wild card action for bettors - at least according to the odds. All four home teams are strongly favored - all by at least 6.5 points. Without question, then, a road team win would be an upset this weekend. It only makes sense, then, that we look at which teams are most likely to pull off an upset. What we'll do today is rank the wild card teams in order of their likelihood of pulling off an upset. Keep in mind that we are not focused on which teams are likely to cover spreads.

NFL Playoffs Expert Betting Advice: Ranking Postseason Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2018

We know what the NFL Playoff field looks like now. So it makes sense that we should work to separate the contenders from the pretenders. There are a lot of teams that could win the Super Bowl without too much shock in this wide-open year - seven by my count. And there are a few teams that are only along for the ride. Here is how I rank the 12 Super Bowl contenders in order of their chances to shine and win it all (Odds to win the Super Bowl are from BetOnline):

NFL Playoffs Betting and Wagering: Avoid These Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2018

The media coverage of the NFL is always crazy, and it only intensifies as the postseason comes around. There are only 12 teams for media members to talk about, and there's increased public interest. It's a dangerous combination. There are many storylines that will have a big impact on the outcomes of games, and the more bettors are familiar with the better off they will be. But there are also stories that get a whole lot of coverage that just don't matter nearly as much as people think they do. You need to ignore these stories for your own sanity - and to avoid making costly betting mistakes.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
by Alan Matthews - 1/3/2018

So how do you like your football? Most fans love offense, and I'm probably in that camp. For example, the college football national semifinal games were wildly different on New Year's Day. The Georgia-Oklahoma Rose Bowl was an offensive extravaganza with 102 points, two overtimes and more than 1,000 yards of offense. That was one of the best NCAA games I've watched in a long time.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 17 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/29/2017

How pissed would you be right now if you were Rams superstar running back Todd Gurley? I don't pretend to know what clauses are included in his contract, but I'm sure there's a mega-bonus for both winning the NFL MVP Award and a rushing title. However, thanks to Coach Sean McVay, Gurley perhaps does neither.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
by Alan Matthews - 12/27/2017

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, a lock first-ballot Hall of Famer when he retires thanks in part to those two Super Bowl rings - still can't believe he has never won an MVP Award - grew up in Lima, Ohio, about 170 miles or so from Cleveland. Roethlisberger, a huge Browns fan growing up, wasn't a major recruit coming out of Findlay High School, located 47 miles south of Toledo, as he didn't even start at quarterback until he was a senior.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
by Alan Matthews - 12/26/2017

Well, the NFL pulled a fast one on us all. I fully expected the Week 17 Panthers-Falcons matchup to be flexed from 1 p.m. ET to the Sunday night game. So did just about every member of both teams. It was clearly the marquee matchup of the final day of the regular season with playoff ramifications for both. Really, the only other option was probably Jacksonville-Tennessee, and that's just not nationally sexy like Panthers-Falcons would be with two former NFL MVPs and the past two Super Bowl runners-up facing off.

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 12/25/2017

Being as this is my final Opening Line Report story of the 2017 season - although of course we will have you covered through the Super Bowl here at Doc's - let's project what next Monday might look like around the league: i.e. Black Monday, when disappointing teams generally fire their head coaches.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 16 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/22/2017

Time to check in on Bovada's season-long "most" props posted as some individual titles could be won this week because a few playoff-bound teams could rest starters in Week 17 if their playoff seeding is locked up. For most passing touchdowns, Russell Wilson is the -200 favorite and Philadelphia's Carson Wentz +300 with a tie at +200.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
by Alan Matthews - 12/20/2017

I can promise you that every member of the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers were rooting for the Atlanta Falcons to be upset in Tampa on Monday night. Alas, the Falcons escaped with 24-21 victory. What does that have to do with my preview of Saturday night's Vikings-Packers matchup at Lambeau Field? Everything.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
by Alan Matthews - 12/19/2017

There is no Sunday night game on Christmas Eve, so I can assure you the one on Dec. 24 that gets the biggest ratings (Fox has the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff) and takes the biggest betting action at the various sportsbooks will be Seattle at Dallas. In all honesty, it's not a great Week 16 slate of action with the only other matchups featuring potentially two playoff teams being Buffalo at New England, Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee, and Atlanta at New Orleans.

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 16 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 12/18/2017

My No. 1 fade candidate in the final two weeks of the 2017 regular season? Unquestionably the Cincinnati Bengals. Not only have the players already quit on the season, but so apparently has the head coach. Cincinnati's season effectively ended on Monday night in Week 13 when it blew a 17-0 lead at home against Pittsburgh and lost 23-20 in an incredibly physical game. The Bengals had zero left in the tank on a short week the next Sunday in a blowout home loss to Chicago and then barely got off the plane in Minneapolis in losing to the Vikings 34-7 this past Sunday.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 15 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/15/2017

The NFL MVP race was presumed to be over following Week 14 when former favorite Carson Wentz of the Eagles was lost to a season-ending torn ACL. You can win an MVP in the NFL if you miss a few games but not if they are at the end of the season. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady had been the new -500 favorite at Bovada entering Monday night's game in Miami, but Brady looked like a 40-year-old quarterback for the first time all season in the loss.

Expert NFL Handicapping: Lessons from Minnesota Vikings Week 14 Loss
by Trevor Whenham - 12/15/2017

Week 14 of the NFL season was the one that everything we thought we knew came off the rails. It seemed like there were four teams above all the rest - New England and Pittsburgh in the AFC, and Minnesota and Philadelphia in the NFC. Last week all four teams took hits. The Pats lost a stunner to Miami. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore, but their injury-ravaged and suddenly-porous defense allowed 38 points. Carson Wentz was lost for the season to an ACL injury.

Expert NFL Betting Advice: Should Patriots Shocking Loss Worry Bettors?
by Trevor Whenham - 12/15/2017

Things must have been too easy and straightforward for bettors involving the Patriots. They were cruising, and it seemed clear - almost inevitable - that they were the class of the AFC again. To keep us on our toes, then, the Patriots laid a massive egg last time out against Miami. It is not nearly as easy as the Patriots made it to make Jay Cutler and the Dolphins seem like a legitimate NFL team. It came from nowhere, and it was shocking.

NFL MVP Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 12/14/2017

The story of this NFL season, unfortunately, has been debilitating injuries to crucial players. And, most recently, the torn ACL suffered by Carson Wentz has seriously impacted the fabric of not only the season and the race for the Super Bowl, but the MVP race as well. At this time last week I would have confidently picked Wentz as my pick to win the award. Now he has no chance, and the race has changed fundamentally. Now that things have changed, this is a good time to revisit the odds and see how things could play out (odds to win the NFL MVP are from Bovada):