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2017 Los Angeles Chargers Season Win Total Picks


by - 8/9/2017

San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers

2016 Record: 5-11

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 5.5

2017 Season Win Total Prediction: 'Over'

When is a five-win season progress? When you won only four games the season before.

The Los Angeles Chargers (that still doesn't sound right) are just 9-23 in their last two seasons, squandering what were likely the final two years of Phil Rivers' prime. The soon-to-be-36-year-old quarterback has a new city and a new coach. But he's still weighted down by the same shoddy roster that's only made the playoffs once in the last seven years.

The Chargers haven't done Rivers any favors with the way they've constructed the offense. The offensive line is shaky at best (and that's an upgrade from two seasons ago). His three best weapons are aging Antonio Gates and injury-prone starters Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon. It's not good. But Rivers was still good enough to get them into the Top 10 in scoring last season and the Top 10 in yards in 2015.

Defensively, Los Angeles (still sounds weird) is still a mess. They are shifting from a 3-4 base to a 4-3 under new coordinator Gus Bradley. The Chargers will benefit from a full season of man-beast Joey Bosa rushing the passer. Pressure from Bosa and Melvin Ingram should help keep the pressure off their paper-thin secondary. The linebacking corps is inept, but I do actually expect a little improvement for this group as a whole.

If the Chargers are going to improve this season, it comes down to one thing: turnovers. They turned the ball over a ridiculous 35 times last year, and over the past three years they've averaged a pathetic 28.3 turnovers per season. A lot of that is on Rivers. But it is an issue that has to be addressed team-wide.

Los Angeles was an atrocious 1-6 in games decided by four point or less or overtime. That includes blown fourth-quarter leads against Kansas City, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay, as well as another missed opportunity against the Raiders. As a result, the Chargers came up nearly three wins short of their Pythagorean Win Total.

I'm not bullish on Anthony Lynn or the new L.A. Chargers (nope, still not used to it). But I do think that they are a bit undervalued. The Chargers open the season with three of four games at home, so they have a chance to build some momentum in their new town. They also have winnable late-season games against Jacksonville (after a bye), Buffalo, Cleveland and the Jets. I don't think San Diego has enough to threaten in the deep AFC West. But I do think they will threaten .500, and I like this team to go 'over'.

Chargers Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)

Week

Date

Kickoff

Opponent

1

11-Sep

7:20 p.m. PDT

at Denver Broncos

2

17-Sep

1:05 p.m. PDT

Miami Dolphins

3

24-Sep

1:25 p.m. PDT

Kansas City Chiefs

4

1-Oct

1:05 p.m. PDT

Philadelphia Eagles

5

8-Oct

10:00 a.m. PDT

at New York Giants

6

15-Oct

1:25 p.m. PDT

at Oakland Raiders

7

22-Oct

1:25 p.m. PDT

Denver Broncos

8

29-Oct

10:00 a.m. PDT

at New England Patriots

9

5-Nov


Bye

10

12-Nov

10:00 a.m. PST

at Jacksonville Jaguars

11

19-Nov

1:05 p.m. PST

Buffalo Bills

12

23-Nov

1:30 p.m. PST

at Dallas Cowboys

13

3-Dec

1:05 p.m. PST

Cleveland Browns

14

10-Dec

1:05 p.m. PST

Washington Redskins

15

16-Dec

5:25 p.m. PST

at Kansas City Chiefs

16

24-Dec

10:00 a.m. PST

at New York Jets

17

31-Dec

1:25 p.m. PST

Oakland Raiders

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