NFL Handicapping Articles

2017 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2017

I was ahead of the curve last year, jumping on the value of the Tampa Bay Bucs as an under-the-radar money team in 2016. They proved me sage, finishing 9-7 on the season and easily eclipsing their 2016 Las Vegas season win total. Now the word is out on the Bucs. Some splashy free agent signings and a tour on HBO's "Hard Knocks" has cast an even brighter spotlight on this squad.

2017 Seattle Seahawks Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/11/2017

Can you call a team underachieving if it makes the playoffs five years in a row and has won a Super Bowl in that stretch? I suppose not, but it sure feels like the Seahawks should have more than one ring - we all know they should but for one fateful play call in Super Bowl XLIX. It seems to me that this team's championship window is closer to shutting than remaining open for the rest of the decade. But it could have one more run in it.

2017 Kansas City Chiefs Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/10/2017

Interesting offseason for the defending AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs. Did the club overpay to re-sign Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry? Sure, but it's not my money. Berry got a six-year deal worth $78 million with $40 million of it guaranteed that makes Berry the NFL's richest safety. He's the heart-and-soul of that defense and a guy you simply have to root for after missing the 2014 season due to Hodgkin's lymphoma.

2017 New England Patriots Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/10/2017

Somehow, the Patriots actually got better in the offseason following their thrilling Super Bowl victory last February. And not just a little better; the Patriots got a lot better. Brandin Cooks was added to bolster an already loaded receiving corps. Stephon Gilmore is a stud cornerback set to take over opposite Malcolm Butler. Tony Ealy was picked up on the cheap to rush the passer. Mike Gillislee jumped over from Buffalo to give the running game some thump. And then the Patriots absolutely stole David Harris from the rival Jets.

2017 Dallas Cowboys Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/10/2017

Never forget that the Dallas Cowboys have been seeped in the stench of loser for most of the Jerry Jones era. Sure, they had a nice little five-year run back when VCRs were still a thing. But over the last 30 years the Cowboys have had a winning record less than half of the time. Dallas is coming off 13 wins last year, their best regular season since 1992. But they have won 10 or more games just five times in the last 18 years, and I don't see them doing it in back-to-back seasons.

2017 Washington Redskins Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/10/2017

By finishing 8-7-1 last year, Washington finished above .500 in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 20 years. In 1996-97 they went 9-7 and then 8-7-1, the same records that they posted nearly two decades later. The Redskins haven't posted three straight winning years since the end of the Joe Gibbs era in 1992, and the last time they won two straight years they followed up with a 6-10 stinker.

2017 Philadelphia Eagles Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/10/2017

Philadelphia overperformed in the first year of their post-Chip Kelly rebuilding season. Carson Wentz exceeded expectations, and new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz - one of the most underrated DCs in the NFL - was able to stabilize a defense that had finished No. 28 or worse in three straight seasons. The Eagles beat three playoff teams - Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Dallas - and six of their losses came by a touchdown or less.

2017 Miami Dolphins Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/10/2017

The Dolphins were a surprise playoff team last year, winning 10 games and sneaking into the Wild Card round. But their preseason has been a disaster so far, losing quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a knee injury and then grabbing Jay Cutler out of the broadcast booth. They've had to deal with other injuries (Ted Larsen) and off-field scandal (Jarvis Landry), and things appear to be resetting to the norm for this lackluster franchise.

NFL Preseason Betting Advice and Tips
by Robert Ferringo - 8/9/2017

I'm here today to give you some tips, tricks, indicators, and strategies for betting the NFL exhibition season. Obviously, preseason football betting is a bit different than how you would approach a regular-season wager. It is the same sport, but preseason football is a different game. The motivational factors are different. The way the numbers are set and what the movements mean are different. Even how much you should wager on these games is different.

2017 Oakland Raiders Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/9/2017

The Raiders entered last season as Everybody's Sleeper Team. Normally that's the kiss of death. Those "sleepers" generally enter the year overhyped and overvalued, shackled by the weight of unrealistic expectations, only to watch it all crumble. Shockingly, the Raiders didn't just live up to the hype - they surpassed it. They won 12 games, the franchise's most since 2000, and tied for the most wins by a Raider team in 40 years. And now it is time for an encore.

2017 Atlanta Falcons Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/9/2017

For the second year in a row, we have an NFL team playing in a sparkling new stadium. Last year, it was the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium, although it didn't help that team make the playoffs. In 2017, the Atlanta Falcons move into the spectacular Mercedes-Benz Stadium, a retractable roof building right in downtown. I urge you to check out some video tours of that place. It's quite something and it will host this season's College Football Playoff National Championship Game (and certainly future Final Fours and Super Bowls).

2017 Kansas City Chiefs Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/9/2017

Andy Reid has won over 60 percent of his games as a head coach in the NFL. He's had just three losing seasons in 18 years and has won 10 or more games 11 times. Reid is yet to have a losing season since taking over the Chiefs, and he's increased Kansas City's win total each of the past two years.

2017 Denver Broncos Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/9/2017

Denver's follow-up campaign after their Super Bowl season left a lot to be desired. Well, not a lot, really. Just a quarterback. Denver won nine games last year on the back of its devastating defense. The Broncos fielded a Top 5 total defense for the third year in a row, and, despite some offseason personnel shuffling, they should be in that neighborhood yet again. Von Miller is a force, and Denver's secondary is the best in football. They did lose Wade Phillips, but the scheme should remain under new coordinator Joe Woods.

2017 Los Angeles Chargers Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/9/2017

When is a five-win season progress? When you won only four games the season before. The Los Angeles Chargers (that still doesn't sound right) are just 9-23 in their last two seasons, squandering what were likely the final two years of Phil Rivers' prime. The soon-to-be-36-year-old quarterback has a new city and a new coach. But he's still weighted down by the same shoddy roster that's only made the playoffs once in the last seven years.

NFL Props Odds and Expert Betting Predictions: Wide Receiver Yardage
by Trevor Whenham - 8/7/2017

The receivers who score a lot of touchdowns are the flashy guys, but it's the guys who pile up a lot of yards that are really doing the work for their teams. They do what it takes to move the ball all the time - not just when they are close to the goal line. A highly-productive receiver is the best friend a quarterback can have, and the confidence that can give a QB has a profound impact on a team in general. BetOnline has a long list of potential receivers who could lead the league in this category and their odds of doing so. Our job here is to assess the favorites for possible betting value:

Free NFL Picks: Expert Predictions for Wide Receiver Touchdown Props
by Trevor Whenham - 8/7/2017

Wide receivers generally don't have the smallest egos at the best of times. And the guy who leads the league in receiving touchdowns isn't going to see his ego shrink. He's not going to get more bearable. So, our job today is to look at the strongest contenders to lead the league in receiving touchdowns according to the prop odds at BetOnline to see if there is any betting value to be had. One spoiler up front - the leading receiver isn't going to play for the Jets. I'm pretty sure you have to have a quarterback in order to score passing touchdowns.

NFL Betting Props: Most Passing Yards Odds with Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 8/6/2017

We're going to look at the prop for the most passing yards by a QB to see if we can find some betting value. What we are really looking at, though, is whether anyone can knock Drew Brees for the perch he has an iron grip on. For five of the last six years, including the last three, Brees has been tops in the league in passing yards. And in 2013 he still passed for 5,162 yards - and finished second to Peyton Manning. He's a passing yards machine. So, will he keep it up, or will someone finally wrestle his crown from him?

Expert NFL Picks: Most Interception Props Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 8/6/2017

There are all sorts of statistical categories that any quarterback would love to lead the league in. Interceptions, of course, are not one of them. There is no way to spin an interception into a positive in any way. It stalls your offense and makes your defense work too hard. You are just begging your opponent to beat you when you throw a lot of interceptions. So, obviously we need to find a way to make some money by figuring out who will be the unfortunate guy to top this category. The odds from BetOnline suggest that it's a crowded race:

Odds for Best Quarterback in NFL: Most Touchdowns Props and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 8/4/2017

Our job here is simple. People love watching quarterbacks throw touchdowns, and we are going to try to make some money by figuring out who is likely to throw more touchdowns than anyone else. BetOnline has listed odds for 18 different quarterbacks to lead the league in passing touchdowns, and if you don't like any of them you can bet the rest of the "field" at a combined +1600. Let's look at the seven players with the lowest odds on the list and one long shot that is fairly attractive:

Expert NFL Betting Picks: "Over/Under" Touchdown Passing Props
by Trevor Whenham - 8/4/2017

We just looked at who is most likely to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns this year (I picked Aaron Rodgers again, but hated the +600 price, and looked at Marcus Mariota at +3300 as the live long shot). That category is really only relevant to a few quarterbacks who combine the skills with the situation to put up big numbers, though. So what I want to do now is be more democratic and let other QBs have their moment in the TD sun.